华金宏观·双循环周报（第73期）：人民币升值趋势能否延续？

Group 1: Currency Trends - The Chinese Yuan (CNY) has appreciated significantly, breaking the 7.1 mark for the first time this year, closing at 7.09 on August 30, reflecting a 1.95% increase from July 31[7] - The recent appreciation of the CNY is attributed to a weakening US dollar index, which has seen a notable decline due to soft US inflation and employment data[7] - The CNY's rise comes after a prolonged depreciation phase that began in early 2023, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment[7] Group 2: US Economic Indicators - The US Q2 2024 GDP growth was revised upward to 3.0%, exceeding market expectations, driven by strong personal consumption expenditures (PCE) which were adjusted to 2.9%[11] - Initial jobless claims in the US have consistently fallen below expectations, with the average for August being 232,000, indicating a tightening labor market[11] - The US government's protectionist trade policies and expansionary fiscal measures are expected to sustain domestic consumption and employment levels, contributing to economic resilience[13] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has emphasized maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate as a key monetary policy goal, alongside supporting economic growth[15] - Recent actions by the PBOC, including the introduction of treasury bond transactions, signal a shift towards a more neutral monetary policy stance to stabilize the RMB[16] - The narrowing interest rate differential between China and the US is a critical factor influencing the RMB's exchange rate stability[16] Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - The potential for a stronger-than-expected US dollar index poses a risk to the RMB's appreciation trajectory, alongside the possibility of faster-than-anticipated convergence of monetary policy towards neutrality[22] - The sustainability of the RMB's appreciation will depend on improvements in domestic demand, particularly following the issuance of 300 billion yuan in special treasury bonds[18] - Export pressures due to new trade barriers in Europe and the US may exert additional downward pressure on the RMB exchange rate in the latter part of the year[18]