宏观点评：7月财政收支与企业利润的边际变化

Group 1: Industrial Enterprises Performance - In July, industrial enterprises' profits continued to grow, with cumulative operating income from January to July increasing by 2.9% year-on-year, and total profit rising by 3.6% year-on-year[4] - The growth rate of finished product inventory from January to July was 5.2%, up from 4.7% in the previous period, indicating a sustained upward trend[4] - Total assets of industrial enterprises increased by 5.3% year-on-year, while total liabilities rose by 5.1%, both showing a decline compared to previous values[4] Group 2: Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - Cumulative public fiscal revenue from January to July decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, while expenditure increased by 2.5% year-on-year[4] - Central fiscal revenue was 59,745 billion yuan, down 6.4% year-on-year, accounting for 44.0% of total revenue; local fiscal revenue was 75,918 billion yuan, up 0.6% year-on-year, accounting for 56.0%[4] - Government fund revenue fell by 18.5% year-on-year, with land use rights revenue decreasing by 22.3%[4] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - The recovery of industrial enterprise profits is expected to drive an increase in finished product inventory, but the Producer Price Index (PPI) remains negative, indicating room for further profit recovery[4] - The report highlights potential risks from geopolitical events affecting Chinese exports and the Federal Reserve's policy shifts impacting China's policy space[6]