2024年8月策略月报：大盘蓝筹表现较优

Market Overview - In August, the A-share market experienced a downturn, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 2837.43 points, down 3.45% from the end of July. The largest decline was seen in the STAR 50 index, which fell by 9.71%, followed by the ChiNext index at 9.28% [1][12]. - The overall market sentiment was weak, with major indices showing a decline. The industrial production growth rate slightly decreased, while retail sales growth rebounded. However, effective domestic demand remained insufficient [9][12]. Profit Analysis - In July, the cumulative profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 3.60% year-on-year, showing a slight recovery compared to June. The cumulative revenue growth rate remained unchanged at 2.90% [16]. - Different types of enterprises showed varied profit growth rates, with private enterprises experiencing a 7.30% increase, while state-owned enterprises saw a 1.00% increase [16]. Market Liquidity and Risk Sentiment - The central bank's MLF operations decreased in volume in August, with a net withdrawal of 1010 billion yuan. The total net injection in the open market was 596.74 billion yuan [20]. - As of August 28, the net outflow of northbound funds from the A-share market was 28.73 billion yuan, indicating a decrease in overall capital inflow [30][31]. Valuation Levels - As of August 28, the dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of the Shanghai 50 index was at a historical percentile of approximately 60.63%, indicating a significant increase from the end of July [39]. - Most industries' price-to-earnings ratios are below historical average levels, suggesting that there are still attractive investment opportunities [1][39]. Policy Analysis - The central government has issued policies to accelerate the green transformation of the economy, which is expected to benefit the green industry in the long term [9]. - The central bank will continue to maintain a supportive monetary policy stance to guide reasonable growth in money and credit, aiming to stabilize the RMB exchange rate [20].