Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected total return over the next 12 months that exceeds the relevant industry [3][9]. Core Views - The market may be underestimating the value of the company's power station and inverter segments, with a target price adjusted to HKD 9.93, reflecting a potential upside of 41.7% from the current price of HKD 7.01 [2][9]. - The company reported a net loss of RMB 889 million in the first half of 2023, with a significant loss of RMB 1.25 billion in the second quarter, primarily due to a sharp decline in polysilicon prices [1][2]. - The polysilicon price has stabilized and rebounded slightly since July, with expectations for further short-term price increases as supply and demand balance out [1][2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at RMB 30.75 billion, down 18.1% year-on-year, with a net profit forecast of RMB 4.35 billion, a decrease of 67.6% [3][10]. - The company expects to incur losses in 2024 and 2025, with net profits projected to be RMB -1.66 billion and RMB -742 million, respectively, before recovering to RMB 2.05 billion in 2026 [3][10]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at RMB -1.16, improving to RMB 1.43 by 2026 [3][10]. Segment Performance - The polysilicon segment is expected to contribute significantly to losses, with a valuation of RMB 42 billion based on a capacity valuation of RMB 1.5 billion per ton, reflecting a 90% discount compared to peers [2][8]. - The power station and inverter segments are projected to generate profits of RMB 11 billion in 2024, contributing to a total valuation of RMB 88 billion based on a 5.5x price-to-earnings ratio [2][8]. Market Position - The company has achieved a significant increase in inverter sales, with a year-on-year growth of over 100% in both domestic and international markets, positioning it as a leader in the Chinese market [1][2]. - The company’s polysilicon production capacity is expected to reach 27.7 million tons by the end of 2024, with a sales volume of 20.3 million tons anticipated for the same year [7][10].
新特能源：业绩符合预告，市场或低估电站、逆变器板块价值