蒙牛乳业2024年中报点评：夯实经营基础，回购彰显信心

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Mengniu Dairy (2319.HK) [2][5] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 44.671 billion yuan for H1 2024, a decrease of 12.61% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.446 billion yuan, down 19.03% year-on-year. The company also announced a share buyback plan of up to 2 billion HKD over the next 12 months, reflecting confidence in its operations [3][4] - Despite a temporary decline in dairy products due to high inventory, Mengniu Dairy is actively managing costs, with management expenses down 11.14% year-on-year. The gross profit margin improved to 40.26%, up 1.86 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in raw milk prices [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, revenue from liquid milk, ice cream, milk powder, cheese, and other products was 36.262 billion, 3.371 billion, 1.635 billion, 2.114 billion, and 1.288 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -12.92%, -21.75%, -13.67%, -6.28%, and +26.35% [3] - The company's net profit margin for H1 2024 was 5.48%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to increased sales expenses and other expenditures [3] - The operating profit margins for liquid milk, ice cream, milk powder, cheese, and other products were 7.04%, 11.41%, 1.44%, 5.61%, and 7.43% respectively, with notable increases in milk powder and cheese margins [3] Market Position and Strategy - In the short term, the dairy industry is experiencing a downturn due to oversupply and high inventory. However, as a leading player, Mengniu Dairy is innovating and expanding its product categories to meet diverse consumer needs, which is expected to facilitate a quicker recovery [4] - In the medium to long term, the company is expected to enhance its market share due to its leading channel advantages and rapid product iteration [4] Profit Forecast - The forecasted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 4.211 billion, 4.621 billion, and 4.985 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -12.43%, 9.74%, and 7.87% [5][9]