农夫山泉：茶饮业务维持高增，盈利水平保持稳定

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Nongfu Spring (09633 HK) [5] Core Views - Nongfu Spring achieved revenue of RMB 22 173 billion in H1 2024, a YoY increase of 8 36% Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 6 24 billion, up 8 04% YoY [2] - Tea beverage business maintained strong growth momentum, contributing 38% of total revenue with RMB 8 43 billion in sales, up 59 5% YoY [3] - Packaged water segment was significantly impacted by public opinion, with revenue declining 18 3% YoY to RMB 8 531 billion [3] - Gross margin slightly decreased by 1 38 percentage points to 58 78% due to new product promotions and rising raw material costs [3] - The company continues to innovate with new product launches across various categories [3] Financial Performance - H1 2024 financial highlights: - Revenue: RMB 22 173 billion (+8 36% YoY) [2] - Net profit: RMB 6 24 billion (+8 04% YoY) [2] - Gross margin: 58 78% (-1 38pct YoY) [3] - Net margin: 28 14% (-0 08pct YoY) [3] - 2024-2026 financial forecasts: - Revenue: RMB 46 768/54 420/61 760 billion [4] - Net profit: RMB 12 968/15 358/17 647 billion [4] - EPS: RMB 1 15/1 37/1 57 [4] - P/E: 24/20/18x [4] Business Segments - Tea beverages: - Revenue: RMB 8 43 billion (+59 5% YoY) [3] - Contribution to total revenue: 38% (+12 2pct YoY) [3] - Packaged water: - Revenue: RMB 8 531 billion (-18 3% YoY) [3] - Contribution to total revenue: 38 47% (-12 5pct YoY) [3] - Other segments: - Functional drinks: RMB 2 55 billion (+3 8% YoY) [3] - Juice drinks: RMB 2 114 billion (+25 4% YoY) [3] - Others: RMB 548 million (-7 3% YoY) [3] Product Innovation - New product launches in H1 2024: - Packaged water: Pure water and edible ice [3] - Water-soluble C100: Blood orange flavor [3] - Teaπ: Jasmine lemon tea flavor [3] - Jianjiao: Calcium lactate and theanine flavors [3] Valuation Metrics - Current price: HKD 27 55 [5] - Market cap: HKD 138 705 06 million [5] - P/E (2024E): 24x [4] - P/B (2024E): 9 4x [4] - EV/EBITDA (2024E): 15x [7]