KEEP(03650) 国泰君安·2024-08-31 04:20Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][2]. Core Views - The company has significantly reduced losses and is expected to grow by providing a one-stop solution for users through fitness content and sports products [1]. - For H1, the company reported revenue of 1.04 billion RMB, a 5.4% increase year-on-year, with adjusted net loss of 160 million RMB, improving from a loss of 220 million RMB in the same period last year [2]. - The forecast for adjusted net profit for 2024-2026 is -267 million, -56 million, and 81 million RMB respectively, indicating a gradual recovery [2]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - H1 revenue breakdown: - Own brand sports products: 501 million RMB (+7.5%) due to increased wholesale channels and sales of fitness equipment and apparel - Online membership and paid content: 437 million RMB (-2.6%) due to a decline in virtual sports event revenue - Advertising and others: 989 million RMB (+42.4%) due to the integration of online and offline advertising business [2]. User Engagement - Average monthly active users reached 29.66 million (+0.4%), with subscription members at 3.282 million (+8.8%), solidifying the company's leading position in the industry - Subscription penetration rate improved to 11.1% (+0.9 percentage points) [2]. Profitability and Cost Structure - H1 gross margin was 46% (+3 percentage points), with own brand sports products at 31.5% (+3.6 percentage points) - Adjusted loss rate was -15.5% (+16.4 percentage points) - Cost structure improved with a reduction in expense ratio to 64.8% (-5.95 percentage points) [2]. Product Development and Future Outlook - The company continues to iterate its own brand matrix and plans to explore overseas AI markets - New product launches include the Keep Watch Pilot 1 smart sports watch and significant upgrades to the Keep App [2]. - The number of exclusive courses for members increased to 5,595 (+136%), with workout sessions increasing by over 70% [2].