青岛啤酒：销量短期承压，成本红利兑现

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Beer (600600.SH) [2][3] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 20.07 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 7.1%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.64 billion yuan, an increase of 6.3% year-on-year [1] - The company’s beer sales volume in Q2 2024 was 2.45 million kiloliters, down 8.0% year-on-year, with the Qingdao brand experiencing a decline of 8.7% [1] - The report highlights that the company’s cost per ton decreased by 5.4% in Q2 2024, contributing to a gross margin increase of 2.7 percentage points to 42.8% [1] - Despite short-term sales pressure, the profit side is expected to maintain stable performance, with a proposed increase in dividend payout to enhance shareholder returns [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue was 20.07 billion yuan, down 7.1% year-on-year; net profit was 3.64 billion yuan, up 6.3% year-on-year [1] - Q2 2024 revenue was 9.92 billion yuan, down 8.9% year-on-year; net profit was 2.04 billion yuan, up 3.5% year-on-year [1] - The company’s beer sales volume in Q2 2024 was 2.45 million kiloliters, down 8.0% year-on-year [1] Cost and Profitability - The cost per ton decreased by 5.4% in Q2 2024, mainly due to lower raw material and packaging costs [1] - Gross margin increased by 2.7 percentage points to 42.8% in Q2 2024 [1] - Net profit margin increased by 2.7 percentage points to 21.1% in Q2 2024 [1] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the company will achieve net profits of 4.86 billion yuan, 5.50 billion yuan, and 6.13 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.8%, 13.2%, and 11.4% [2] - The company plans to steadily increase its dividend payout ratio, which was 63.93% in 2023, to enhance shareholder returns [1]