青岛啤酒：Q2利润符合预期，业绩确定性仍高

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" [2][9] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 20.068 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 7.06%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.642 billion yuan, an increase of 6.31% [6] - The second quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 9.918 billion yuan, down 8.89% year-on-year, but net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 3.55% to 2.044 billion yuan [6][9] - Despite weak consumer demand and inventory reduction at the factory level impacting sales, the company maintained a resilient upgrade capability with a total sales volume of 4.63 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.82% [7][9] Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price as of August 29, 2024, was 57.90 yuan, with a total share capital of 1,364.20 million shares and a net asset value of 28,393.99 million yuan [3] Financial Performance - For 2024, the company expects revenues of 33.059 billion yuan, 33.551 billion yuan, and 34.025 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of 4.741 billion yuan, 5.333 billion yuan, and 5.897 billion yuan [10] - The gross profit margin is projected to improve from 38.7% in 2023 to 44.5% in 2026 [10] Profitability and Cost Management - The net profit margin for Q2 2024 increased by 2.70 percentage points to 21.15%, with a gross margin of 42.79% [8] - The company is expected to benefit from cost elasticity due to declining raw material costs, which will support profit growth in the upcoming quarters [9] Long-term Outlook - The company is positioned as a quality investment with both offensive and defensive characteristics, supported by resilient upgrades and expected increases in dividend yield [9]