ICBC(601398) 国信证券·2024-08-31 08:03Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [5][8] Core Views - Net interest margin declined, but asset quality remained excellent [3][5] - Revenue and net profit declined year-on-year, with net interest margin being the main drag on profit growth [5] - Asset growth slowed, with total assets increasing by 7.9% YoY to 47.1 trillion yuan by Q2 2024 [5] - Fee-based income decreased by 8.2% YoY due to factors such as public fund fee reforms and capital market fluctuations [5] - Asset quality remained strong, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.35% and a provision coverage ratio of 218% [5] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue is expected to decline by 1.7% in 2024E but grow by 4.5% and 6.4% in 2025E and 2026E, respectively [4][5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow by 0.7%, 2.5%, and 4.4% in 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively [4][5] - Diluted EPS is projected to be 0.99, 1.01, and 1.06 yuan for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively [4][5] - The PE ratio is expected to be 6.3x, 6.1x, and 5.9x for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively [4][5] - The PB ratio is forecasted to be 0.61x, 0.57x, and 0.53x for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively [4][5] Financial Performance - Revenue for H1 2024 was 420.5 billion yuan, down 6.0% YoY [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2024 was 170.5 billion yuan, down 1.9% YoY [5] - The weighted average ROE for H1 2024 was 9.5%, down 1.0 percentage point YoY [5] - The net interest margin for H1 2024 was 1.43%, down 29bps YoY [5] - The loan-to-deposit ratio remained stable at 76% [10] Asset Quality and Capital Adequacy - The non-performing loan ratio was 1.35% at the end of Q2 2024, flat compared to the beginning of the year [5] - The provision coverage ratio was 218% at the end of Q2 2024, up 4 percentage points from the beginning of the year [5] - The core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio was 13.84% at the end of Q2 2024, showing little change from the beginning of the year [5]