巨星科技：周期底部向上，业绩持续超预期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown a significant performance improvement, with H1 2024 revenue reaching 6.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.8%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.19 billion yuan, up 36.8%, exceeding the upper limit of the forecast [3][4] - The company is expected to benefit from a cyclical recovery in H2 2024, with anticipated increases in orders driven by improved economic conditions and potential interest rate cuts in the U.S. [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company's revenue was 6.7 billion yuan, with Q2 revenue at 3.4 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 26.2% [3] - The company's gross margin improved to 32.7% in Q2, up 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 23.0%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points [3] Business Segments - The hand tools segment generated 4.55 billion yuan in revenue, a 30.0% increase year-on-year, driven by an improved product matrix and market share [3] - The electric tools segment saw revenue of 480 million yuan, up 35.1% year-on-year, supported by the launch of new 20V lithium battery tools [3] - The industrial tools category achieved revenue of 1.63 billion yuan, a 19.7% increase, primarily due to economic recovery in Europe and expansion in Belt and Road regions [3] Market Dynamics - The U.S. remains the core growth market, accounting for 58.9% of revenue, with year-on-year growth of 41.8% [3] - The company expects to see a cyclical upturn in H2 2024, with potential demand recovery linked to U.S. housing market improvements [4] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 13.95 billion yuan, 17.30 billion yuan, and 20.20 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 2.28 billion yuan, 2.61 billion yuan, and 3.07 billion yuan [4][5] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 14x, 12x, and 10x for the respective years [4]