银行行业跟踪报告：看多国有大行，红利核心资产

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Buy" based on the expectation of significant outperformance compared to the relevant market index [6]. Core Viewpoints - High dividend yields and low valuations continue to attract investment in state-owned banks, with a long-term dividend payout ratio maintained above 30% [2][4]. - The average dividend yield for the five major state-owned banks has decreased from approximately 7% at the beginning of 2023 to around 5% currently, yet it still offers a premium of about 270 basis points over the ten-year government bond yield, indicating substantial dividend potential [2][4]. - The price-to-book (PB) ratio for state-owned banks is at 0.66, which is historically low, suggesting that these banks remain attractive for dividend-focused investment strategies [2][4]. Summary by Sections Dividend and Valuation - State-owned banks have announced their mid-year dividend plans for 2024, enhancing the stability and sustainability of dividends, which strengthens investor expectations [2][4]. - The "中特估" market trend in 2023 and the anticipated dividend market in 2024 are expected to elevate the valuation levels of state-owned banks [2][4]. Operational Stability - Over the past decade, state-owned banks have experienced a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4-5% in revenue and profit, with a stable return on equity (ROE) above 10% over the last five years [2][4]. - Despite a slight decline in net profit in the first half of 2024 due to high-quality credit growth and narrowing interest margins, the second quarter is expected to show an improvement in profit growth decline [2][4]. Interest Margin and Asset Quality - The net interest margin has been under pressure since 2022 due to various factors, but recent regulatory measures have stabilized the cost of bank liabilities, leading to a stabilization of interest margins in the first half of 2024 [3][4]. - The asset quality of state-owned banks has remained stable, with a decreasing non-performing loan (NPL) ratio and an increasing provision coverage ratio, which supports smoother performance through economic cycles [5].