Haitong Securities·2024-08-31 09:39Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][7]. Core Views - The report highlights that the upgrade in intelligent driving capabilities is expected to drive higher-end sales, particularly with the AD Max version, which has seen a significant increase in order proportion for models priced above 300,000 yuan, reaching nearly 70% [6][7]. - The company anticipates a recovery in profitability in the second half of 2024, driven by increased vehicle deliveries and cost reduction efforts [5][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company reported revenue of 57.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21%. The second quarter revenue was 31.7 billion yuan, up 11% year-on-year and 24% quarter-on-quarter [2][5]. - The net profit for the first half of 2024 was 1.69 billion yuan, down 48% year-on-year, with the second quarter net profit at 1.1 billion yuan, down 52% year-on-year but up 86% quarter-on-quarter [2][5]. - The company expects vehicle deliveries in the third quarter of 2024 to be between 145,000 and 155,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 38% to 47.5% [5][7]. Profitability and Margin Analysis - The net profit margin for the second quarter of 2024 was 3.5%, down 4.6 percentage points year-on-year but up 1.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The gross margin was 19.5%, down 2.3 percentage points year-on-year and 1.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [5][8]. - The selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses and R&D expense ratios for the second quarter were 8.9% and 9.6%, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 0.8 and 1.1 percentage points, but quarter-on-quarter decreases of 2.7 and 2.3 percentage points [5][8]. Sales and Revenue Forecast - The company has adjusted its sales forecast for new vehicles to 490,000, 690,000, and 830,000 units for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding revenues of 144 billion, 203.6 billion, and 246.8 billion yuan [7][8]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 3.20 yuan, 5.88 yuan, and 8.39 yuan, respectively [7][8].