Guoxin Securities·2024-08-31 10:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral" [4] Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year revenue decline of 8.8% in the first half of 2024, with total revenue reaching 69.8 billion yuan. However, net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 1.7% year-on-year to 24.5 billion yuan, indicating a recovery in growth rate compared to the first quarter [1] - The company's total assets grew by 0.6% year-on-year to 6.8 trillion yuan, reflecting a cautious approach to asset expansion. Loan amounts increased by 4.0% year-on-year, while deposits decreased by 5.7% [1] - The average net interest margin for the first half of 2024 was 1.54%, down by 28 basis points year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in loan yields and interest rates on interest-earning assets [1] - Non-interest income saw significant growth, with other non-interest income rising by 33.8% year-on-year to 11.2 billion yuan, largely driven by an increase in investment income [1] - Asset quality showed some pressure, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.25% and an increase in the attention ratio to 1.99% [1] Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 40.9 billion yuan, 41.4 billion yuan, and 42.6 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.3%, 1.1%, and 2.9% [1][5] - The diluted EPS is projected to be 0.61 yuan, 0.62 yuan, and 0.64 yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 4.7, 4.6, and 4.5 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, and a PB ratio of 0.36, 0.34, and 0.32 respectively [1][5]