酒鬼酒：2024年半年报点评：Q2降幅收窄，静待行业反转

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the report, but it suggests to "continue to pay attention" due to proactive reforms and improving channels [7][11]. Core Views - The report anticipates a weak recovery in consumption and ongoing reforms within the company, projecting revenues for 2024-2026 to be 2.207/2.348/2.578 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -22.02%/+6.42%/+9.77%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 208/231/256 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -62.05%/+11.32%/+10.66%. The corresponding PE valuations for 2024-2026 are projected to be 57/52/47X [3][11]. Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 999.4 million yuan, a decrease of 35.50% year-on-year, and a net profit of 121 million yuan, down 71.32% year-on-year. In Q2 2024, revenue was 500 million yuan, an increase of 13.27% year-on-year, with a net profit of 48 million yuan, down 60.87% year-on-year [11][12]. - The company’s gross margin in Q2 2024 was 75.59%, a decrease of 2.23 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in product mix. The net profit margin for Q2 2024 was 9.52%, down 11.59 percentage points year-on-year [11][12]. Product and Regional Performance - The report highlights that the Xiangquan series performed well, with provincial sales outperforming those outside the province. In H1 2024, the revenue breakdown by product was as follows: Neican series 173 million yuan, Jiugui series 591 million yuan, Xiangquan series 49 million yuan, and other series 177 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -60.85%/-30.11%/+36.33%/-17.51% respectively [11][12]. - Revenue from provincial and non-provincial sales in H1 2024 was 413 million yuan and 581 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year decreases of 33.68% and 36.74% [11][12]. Future Projections - The report projects that the company will continue to face challenges in the short term due to ongoing reforms, but anticipates a gradual recovery in revenue and profit margins in the coming years [3][11].