SXN(600661) 天风证券·2024-08-31 13:03Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a 6-month outlook [2] - The current stock price is 11.4 yuan, and the target price is not specified [2] Core Views - The company has released an equity incentive plan to bind core talents, covering up to 212 employees including directors, supervisors, senior management, and key staff [2] - The equity incentive plan includes 13.05 million shares, accounting for 4.6% of the total shares, with a transfer price of 5.46 yuan per share (approximately 50% of the closing price on Thursday) [2] - The plan has a 60-month duration with three unlocking periods (30%, 30%, 40%) and performance targets for 2025-2027 based on revenue growth and net profit margin [2] - The company's H1 2024 revenue increased by 39% YoY to 570 million yuan, with a net loss of 20 million yuan, representing a reduction in losses of 90 million yuan [3] - Contract liabilities as of June 30, 2024, reached 700 million yuan, a 20% increase from the end of 2023 [3] Non-Academic Business Development - The company's non-academic product system covers all age groups from preschool to high school, with a focus on humanities, science, and language-based programs [4] - In H1 2024, preschool and elementary school enrollment reached approximately 30,000 students, doubling from 15,000 in H1 2023 [4] - Middle school enrollment reached 35,000 students, up from 27,000 in H1 2023, driven by OMO product systems including AI-based personalized learning [4] - The company is actively developing school after-school services and has established deep cooperation with multiple schools in science and research education [4] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company's revenue in Q2 2024 increased by 31% YoY to 300 million yuan, with a net loss of 30 million yuan, representing a reduction in losses of 50 million yuan [3] - Revenue for 2024E is projected at 1,351.01 million yuan, with a YoY growth of 39.89%, and net profit is expected to turn positive at 66.14 million yuan [6] - For 2025E, revenue is forecasted to reach 1,758.03 million yuan, with a net profit of 170.03 million yuan, and for 2026E, revenue is expected to grow to 2,281.05 million yuan, with a net profit of 217.13 million yuan [6] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 41.73% in 2023 to 44.08% in 2026E [7] Strategic Focus - The company is deepening its strategic transformation, focusing on non-academic businesses, including quality education, vocational education, adult education, and international and basic education [5] - The company aims to optimize its product lines and accelerate the development of quality education, vocational education, and international education businesses [5] - The company plans to expand its adult education business through multi-city, multi-product, and multi-channel strategies [5] Valuation Metrics - The company's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 47.79X in 2024E to 14.56X in 2026E [6] - The P/B ratio is expected to decline from 27.83X in 2024E to 5.81X in 2026E [6] - The EV/EBITDA ratio is forecasted to improve from 19.63X in 2024E to 5.26X in 2026E [6]