Xinda Securities·2024-08-31 13:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (兖矿能源) is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a stable operating performance with increased sales volume but decreased revenue, highlighting its investment value through dividend distribution [1][4] - The coal production and sales have shown growth, with a significant increase in production capacity expected in the coming years [3][4] - The company is positioned for long-term growth with a focus on becoming a clean energy supplier and a world-class enterprise [4] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 72.31 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.07% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.57 billion yuan, an increase of 31.64% year-on-year [1] - The net cash flow from operating activities was 12.62 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 85.42% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2024, the company reported a revenue of 32.68 billion yuan, down 18.26% year-on-year and 17.55% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 3.81 billion yuan, down 16.37% year-on-year but up 1.46% quarter-on-quarter [2] Coal Production and Sales - In H1 2024, the company produced 69.08 million tons of coal, an increase of 8.2% year-on-year, with sales of 67.88 million tons, up 2.9% year-on-year [2] - The average selling price of coal in H1 2024 was 698 yuan per ton, down 23.5% year-on-year [2] - The company aims to achieve a coal production target of over 140 million tons in 2024, with several new projects planned to enhance production capacity [3][4] Chemical Production - The chemical segment maintained stable production and sales, with a gross margin improvement in Q2 2024 [2] - In H1 2024, the chemical products produced were 4.18 million tons, with sales of 3.75 million tons [2] Dividend and Shareholder Value - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.23 yuan per share, totaling 2.3 billion yuan, which is approximately 30.5% of the net profit for the first half of the year [4] - The controlling shareholder and management have collectively increased their holdings, indicating confidence in the company's value [4] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to see net profits of 16.8 billion yuan, 19.1 billion yuan, and 21 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.67, 1.90, and 2.09 yuan per share [4]