基础化工行业周报：降息周期即将开启，重视处于估值底部且具备盈利韧性的化工龙头

Investment Rating - The report rates the basic chemical industry as "Overweight" [2] Core Viewpoints - The upcoming interest rate cut cycle is expected to benefit resilient performance in leading chemical companies, particularly those with significant cost advantages and counter-cyclical expansion capabilities [4] - Despite pressures in the new materials sector in 2024, there is optimism for sub-industries with high barriers to entry and growth potential [4] - The chemical sector is currently viewed as undervalued, with leading companies entering a bottom configuration phase, indicating potential for rebound rather than reversal [5][42] Market Performance and Price Tracking - The Shanghai Composite Index saw a change of +0.43%, while the ChiNext Index increased by +2.17% during the week of August 26-30, with the basic chemical index rising by +4.23%, ranking first among 30 sectors [5][37] - Key price increases included acrylonitrile (+6.21%) and phosphoric acid (+4.48%) [5] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and others, focusing on those with resilient earnings and clear cost advantages [5][42][43] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sub-industries such as MDI, coal chemicals, spandex, and titanium dioxide, which are expected to perform well [42] Company Performance Highlights - Wanhua Chemical reported a revenue of 97.07 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 10.77% [45] - Hualu Hengsheng's revenue from its Jingzhou base reached 3.765 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 14.4% [50] - Juhua Co. achieved a revenue of 12.08 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.65% [51] Price and Margin Trends - MDI prices showed slight declines, with the price at 16,478 yuan/ton as of August 30, 2024 [46] - The report notes that while some product prices are under pressure, overall sales volumes are steadily increasing [49] Industry Outlook - The report anticipates a cautious yet optimistic outlook for the macroeconomic environment, with potential confidence boosts following the conclusion of the Third Plenary Session [5][42] - The chemical industry is expected to continue facing supply release periods in 2024, with marginal demand improvements not offsetting new supply impacts [5][42]