邮储银行：2024年半年报点评：不良净生成向优，息差韧性仍强

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Postal Savings Bank of China (601658) with a target price of 5.78 CNY, compared to the current price of 4.73 CNY [2]. Core Views - The bank's net interest income shows resilience despite a slight decline in overall revenue and net profit. The bank's asset quality remains stable with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.84% and a provision coverage ratio of 325.61% [2]. - The bank's revenue for H1 2024 is 176.79 billion CNY, a slight decrease of 0.11% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is 48.82 billion CNY, down 1.5% year-on-year [2]. - The bank's retail loan growth is strong, with a year-on-year increase of 10.7% in total loans, supported by significant growth in personal consumption and business loans [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue decreased by 0.11% year-on-year to 1767.89 billion CNY, while net profit fell by 1.5% to 488.15 billion CNY. The NPL ratio stands at 0.84% with a provision coverage ratio of 325.61% [2]. - The bank's net interest income for Q2 2024 was 71.30 billion CNY, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.56% [2]. - The bank's non-interest income from investment banking and wealth management grew by 49.1% and 21.4% respectively, while total non-interest income increased by 1.54% [2]. Loan Growth - Total loans increased by 10.7% year-on-year, with retail loans growing by 8.8%. Personal consumption loans and business loans saw increases of 20.9% and 16.1% respectively [2]. - The bank's corporate loans (excluding bills) grew by 15%, with the top five industries accounting for 64.57% of total loans [2]. Asset Quality - The NPL ratio remained stable at 0.84%, with a quarterly annualized NPL generation rate of 0.41%, indicating a downward trend [2]. - The bank's provision coverage ratio slightly decreased to 325.6%, but the overall risk compensation ability remains strong [2]. Future Outlook - The report forecasts revenue growth rates of 1.7%, 5.7%, and 8.1% for 2024-2026, with net profit growth rates of -0.2%, 4.7%, and 8.3% respectively [2]. - The current valuation is at 0.56x 2024 price-to-book (PB) ratio, with a target PB of 0.68x, corresponding to a target price of 5.78 CNY [2].