TINCI(002709) 华创证券·2024-09-01 02:09Investment Rating - Strong Buy (Maintained) with a target price of 16.95 RMB, compared to the current price of 14.35 RMB [1] Core Views - The company's H1 2024 revenue was 5.45 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 31.76%, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 238 million RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 81.56% [1] - In Q2 2024, revenue was 2.987 billion RMB, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21.27%, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 123 million RMB, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.64% [1] - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, particularly in lithium-ion battery materials, with a self-supply ratio of core raw materials (LiPF6 and LiFSI) reaching 97% [1] - The company is expanding its overseas business, with projects in North America and Morocco entering the pilot phase, and plans to establish a sample preparation room in North America to enhance service quality [1] - The company's lithium iron phosphate (LFP) product sales increased by 67% year-on-year, with sales revenue growing by 21%, indicating strong growth potential in the cathode materials sector [1] - The company's 2024-2026 net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 835 million RMB, 1.626 billion RMB, and 2.416 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 33x, 17x, and 11x [1] Financial Performance Summary - H1 2024 revenue: 5.45 billion RMB, down 31.76% YoY [1] - H1 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders: 238 million RMB, down 81.56% YoY [1] - Q2 2024 revenue: 2.987 billion RMB, up 21.27% QoQ [1] - Q2 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders: 123 million RMB, up 7.64% QoQ [1] - Forecasted 2024-2026 revenue: 14.514 billion RMB, 17.961 billion RMB, and 21.386 billion RMB, respectively [2] - Forecasted 2024-2026 net profit attributable to shareholders: 835 million RMB, 1.626 billion RMB, and 2.416 billion RMB, respectively [2] Business Development - The company is enhancing its competitive advantage in lithium-ion battery materials by increasing the self-supply ratio of core raw materials (LiPF6 and LiFSI) to 97% [1] - The company is advancing the commissioning of its 300,000-ton LFP project (Phase I) and improving product competitiveness [1] - The company is actively promoting the commissioning and operation of its lithium carbonate production line in a subsidiary, achieving a battery black powder recovery rate of 98% [1] - The company is expanding its overseas business, with projects in North America and Morocco entering the pilot phase, and plans to establish a sample preparation room in North America [1] - The company's LFP product sales increased by 67% year-on-year, with sales revenue growing by 21%, indicating strong growth potential in the cathode materials sector [1] Valuation and Forecast - The company's 2024-2026 net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 835 million RMB, 1.626 billion RMB, and 2.416 billion RMB, respectively [1] - The corresponding P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 33x, 17x, and 11x, respectively [1] - The target price of 16.95 RMB is based on a 2025 P/E ratio of 20x [1]