氟化工行业事件点评：R32配额调整，短期扰动不改长期格局

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the fluorochemical industry, but it implies a positive outlook for the third-generation refrigerants due to supply-demand dynamics and regulatory support [1]. Core Insights - The adjustment of R32 quotas is a short-term measure that does not alter the long-term supply constraints in the third-generation refrigerant market. The supply-demand balance is expected to remain tight in the long run [1]. - The total production quota for HFCs in 2024 is set at 1.853 billion tons of CO2 equivalent, with an internal production quota of 895 million tons of CO2 equivalent. The remaining unallocated quotas indicate a relatively abundant supply [1]. - The new allocation of R32 internal production quotas has increased by 25% compared to previous levels, aimed at meeting the production demands of downstream air conditioning manufacturers [1]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Changes - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment announced the distribution of remaining quotas for HFCs, specifically allocating 35,000 tons for R32, equivalent to 2.3625 million tons of CO2 equivalent [1]. - The distribution is based on the existing quota proportions of each enterprise, indicating that the competitive landscape will remain unchanged, with leading companies retaining strong bargaining power [1]. Market Dynamics - The demand for third-generation refrigerants is expected to remain robust due to factors such as appliance upgrades and global warming, which will create a supply gap as second-generation refrigerants phase out [1]. - The report anticipates that the supply of third-generation refrigerants will maintain a tight balance, driven by steady demand from the air conditioning sector [1].