钢铁行业周报：需求边际连升两周，库存加速下降

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry, including specific recommendations for various sub-sectors such as carbon steel, stainless steel, special steel, and steel trading [1][4]. Core Insights - Demand is expected to marginally recover as the seasonal transition occurs, while the market pressure is anticipated to gradually ease due to production cuts and maintenance by some steel companies [3][4]. - The overall inventory of steel has been decreasing, with a notable drop in total inventory levels compared to the same period in previous years [4][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Steel Market Overview - The apparent consumption of major steel products reached 8.5758 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.45%, but a year-on-year decrease of 8.18% [14]. - The total inventory of steel decreased to 15.6295 million tons, down by 789,200 tons week-on-week, and is currently below the inventory levels of the same period from 2019 to 2023 [4][7]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills was 76.41%, a decrease of 1.06 percentage points week-on-week [17]. 2. Price Movements - The price of rebar increased by 100 CNY/ton to 3290 CNY/ton, reflecting a 3.13% rise, while hot-rolled coil prices also saw an increase [7][32]. - The simulated production profit for rebar rose to 193 CNY/ton, an increase of 77.6 CNY/ton week-on-week, indicating a slight recovery in profitability [27]. 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report suggests that the negative impact of the real estate sector on steel demand is expected to diminish as its share of demand has fallen below 20% [4][7]. - Infrastructure development is anticipated to provide some support for steel demand, while manufacturing is expected to maintain steady growth, potentially offsetting declines in demand from the real estate sector [4][7]. 4. Raw Material Prices - Iron ore prices have increased, with the spot price rising by 29 CNY/ton to 749 CNY/ton, while coking coal prices remained stable [35][40]. - The inventory of iron ore at ports rose to 153.72 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.26% [40]. 5. Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading steel companies with advantageous product structures, such as Hualing Steel and Baosteel, as well as companies in the special steel sector like Zhongxin Special Steel and Yongjin Co., Ltd. [4][7].