Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industrial metals sector, consistent with the previous rating [2][4]. Core Viewpoints - Domestic real estate policies are expected to boost market sentiment, while overseas interest rate cuts may provide support for industrial metal prices. The upcoming peak season in September and October shows signs of improved downstream demand, which could further support prices, although the extent of price rebounds will depend on inventory reduction rates [4][8]. - The report highlights the performance of aluminum and copper markets, indicating that aluminum prices may be supported by rising alumina prices and policy expectations, while copper prices are bolstered by expectations of reduced smelting output as the peak season approaches [4][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - Recent domestic real estate policies, such as extending loan terms and optimizing first-home recognition standards, have heightened expectations for market support. The U.S. services PMI for August was reported at 55.2, exceeding expectations, indicating continued economic expansion [4][8]. - The report notes that while downstream demand shows signs of recovery, high prices may still suppress demand, and the actual price rebound will depend on the realization of peak season expectations [4][8]. 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The report indicates that the industrial metals sector has shown resilience, with specific stocks like Yinbang Co. experiencing a weekly increase of 33.15%, while Zhongjin Gold saw a decline of 12.02% [10]. 3. Industrial Metal Prices and Inventory - As of August 30, 2024, LME copper prices decreased by 0.58% to $9,235 per ton, while SHFE copper prices increased by 0.98% to ¥74,220 per ton. Aluminum prices on LME fell by 3.74% to $2,447 per ton, while SHFE aluminum rose by 0.28% to ¥19,850 per ton [14][15]. - The report highlights that copper and aluminum inventories are primarily in a state of reduction, with copper inventory at 24.2 million tons, showing a decrease of 3.71% week-on-week [15][22]. 4. Copper Market Insights - The report notes that the domestic peak season is approaching, with expectations of reduced smelting output supporting copper prices. The copper processing plant operating rate is reported at 79.26%, with a slight decrease of 1.29 percentage points [4][22]. - The report also mentions that domestic social copper inventory has decreased by 0.44 million tons to 279,000 tons, while global visible inventory has increased slightly to 714,000 tons [4][22]. 5. Aluminum Market Insights - The report indicates that alumina prices are holding firm, which, along with policy expectations, may support aluminum prices. The operating rate for aluminum processing enterprises has increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.4% [4][28]. - The report also notes that the profitability of aluminum has slightly decreased, with profit per ton of aluminum dropping to approximately ¥1,246 [4][28].
工业金属周报：内需博弈升级，逆周期发力可期
Guotai Junan Securities·2024-09-01 03:23