NONGFU SPRING(09633) 海通证券·2024-09-01 04:41Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company achieved a revenue of 22.173 billion HKD in the first half of 2024, representing a year-over-year growth of 8.36%, and a net profit of 6.240 billion HKD, also reflecting a year-over-year increase of 8.04% [3][4] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of tea and juice beverages, which are becoming the core growth drivers for the company's beverage business, with tea beverage revenue growing by 59.5% year-over-year [6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company's revenue grew by 8.36% year-over-year, driven by the rapid growth of tea and juice products, despite a decline in bottled water sales [3][4] - The gross profit margin decreased by 1.38 percentage points to 58.78%, while the gross profit amount increased by 5.87% year-over-year [3] - The company maintained a net profit margin of 28.14%, with net profit increasing by 8.04% year-over-year [3] Business Segments - Bottled Water: Revenue for bottled water decreased by 18.3% year-over-year to 8.531 billion HKD due to negative impacts from online events affecting brand perception [4] - Tea Beverages: Revenue reached 8.430 billion HKD, with a year-over-year growth of 59.5%, maintaining a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 39.43% over three years [6] - Juice Beverages: Revenue increased by 25.4% year-over-year to 2.114 billion HKD, although the profit margin decreased by 5.89 percentage points [6] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve total revenues of 47.322 billion HKD, 56.694 billion HKD, and 65.514 billion HKD for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5][7] - Net profit forecasts for the same years are 12.693 billion HKD, 15.624 billion HKD, and 18.590 billion HKD [5][7] - The report suggests a price-to-earnings (PE) valuation range of 30-35 times for 2024, translating to a per-share value range of 33.90-39.55 HKD [7]