9月A股策略：淡化总量

Market Overview - The report indicates that the probability of profit and valuation expansion in the market is low, as key economic indicators are still weakening and corporate profit pressures have not eased [1][2] - Private sector credit growth remains on a downward trend, with a measured growth rate of 6.66% at the end of July, consistent with June levels [1][2] - The real estate sector is experiencing low levels of activity, with the second-hand housing price index in 70 major cities continuing to decline year-on-year [1][2] Economic Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown a consistent downward trend, with the number of industries experiencing month-on-month increases dropping to 8 [1][6] - The report suggests that the high point for PPI this year may have already occurred, as historical seasonal factors will gradually weaken in the second half of the year [1][8] Liquidity and Valuation - The report notes a significant decrease in remaining liquidity, with the M2 growth rate minus nominal GDP growth at 2.23%, indicating limited room for valuation expansion in the A-share market [1][2] - Historically, years with similar liquidity conditions have seen A-share valuations contract by approximately 10%, with a current contraction of around 8% [1][2] Policy Outlook - The report anticipates that there will be policy measures to bridge the gap between the current economic situation and growth targets, with indications from government agencies suggesting new incremental policies may be introduced [1][2] - While there is potential for fiscal policy to expand, local investment remains cautious, with infrastructure investment growth at 4.9% from January to July, continuing a downward trend [1][2] Recommended Stocks - The report lists key recommended stocks for September, including BYD (automotive), GoerTek (electronics), and Baia (textiles), among others, highlighting their potential based on industry trends and company fundamentals [11][12]