专题策略：哈里斯若当选或带来哪些影响？

Group 1 - Harris's election probability surged after Biden endorsed her, but key decisions have significantly lowered her chances, making the election outcome uncertain [2][8][9] - The selection of Tim Walz as vice-presidential candidate, who holds more radical left views, may alienate moderate voters and complicate the election dynamics [4][10][17] - Harris's economic policy proposals, including price controls, have faced public backlash, leading to a drop in her election probability by approximately 10% on betting platforms [4][20][24] Group 2 - If elected, Harris is likely to abandon Biden's moderate approach in favor of a more radical agenda reminiscent of the Obama era, which could lead to greater challenges in domestic and foreign policy [3][23] - Harris's economic framework aims for "result fairness" through government intervention, targeting low prices, low taxes, and high social security, but may undermine market efficiency and increase fiscal pressure [4][24][31] - The proposed policies, such as housing development incentives and healthcare cost reductions, could lead to significant government spending, raising concerns about national debt and inflation [4][28][31] Group 3 - Harris's potential election may stabilize global geopolitical risks compared to a Trump presidency, maintaining existing international orders and cooperative relationships with traditional allies [5][32] - The approach towards U.S.-China relations under Harris is expected to continue the "competition without confrontation" strategy, which may reduce the likelihood of unexpected geopolitical conflicts [5][33] - If Harris's administration leads to a more manageable U.S.-China relationship, it could shift China's policy focus back to economic efficiency, potentially benefiting capital markets [5][34]