2024年8月PMI数据点评：两大结构亮点延续，制造业新动能和出口

Economic Overview - August PMI for manufacturing dropped to 49.1%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points, marking the first contraction below the threshold this year, excluding February due to seasonal factors[2] - The production index fell to 49.8% and new orders index to 48.9%, down 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points respectively, indicating a persistent supply-demand imbalance[2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - New export orders index rose to 48.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from July, although it remains in the contraction zone[3] - The backlog of orders index decreased to 44.7%, down 0.6 percentage points, suggesting a weak demand outlook[3] Price Trends - The raw material price index fell significantly to 43.2%, down 6.7 percentage points, while the factory price index dropped to 42.0%, down 4.3 percentage points, reflecting declining commodity prices[4] - Major commodities like Brent crude oil fell over 5%, reinforcing downward pressure on prices[4] Inventory and Business Sentiment - Raw material inventory index at 47.6% and finished goods inventory index at 48.5%, both indicating contraction in inventory levels[4] - Large enterprises' PMI stands at 50.4%, while medium and small enterprises are at 48.7% and 46.4% respectively, highlighting a significant disparity in business conditions across different enterprise sizes[4] Future Outlook - The manufacturing production activity expectation index is at 52.0%, indicating a positive outlook despite a 1.1 percentage point decline from the previous month[5] - Accelerated issuance of special bonds in August, nearing 800 billion, is expected to boost construction activity and overall economic growth in the latter half of the year[5]