月报策略：经济运行总体平稳，市场有望企稳反弹

Economic Overview - The overall economic operation remains stable, with expectations for a rebound in the market as macroeconomic policies are enhanced and growth stabilization measures are continuously implemented [5][20]. - The manufacturing PMI for August is reported at 49.1%, indicating a slight decline and remaining in the contraction zone for four consecutive months, suggesting that the manufacturing sector's vitality needs improvement [3][10]. - The PMI for large enterprises is at 50.4%, while medium and small enterprises are at 48.7% and 46.4%, respectively, indicating increasing operational pressure on smaller firms [3][10]. Manufacturing and Trade - The manufacturing PMI production sub-index is at 49.8%, continuing a downward trend for four months and indicating insufficient market demand [3][10]. - New export orders PMI improved slightly to 48.7%, but the export price index has decreased, suggesting that while export volumes may have improved, prices are under pressure [3][10]. - For the first seven months of 2024, China's total import and export value reached 24.83 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, with exports growing by 6.7% and imports by 5.4% [12]. Consumer and Investment Trends - Social retail sales for the first seven months reached 273.726 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5%, indicating a gradual recovery in consumer spending [16]. - Fixed asset investment for the same period was 287.611 billion yuan, growing by 3.6%, with infrastructure investment increasing by 4.9% and manufacturing investment by 9.3% [17]. - Real estate investment, however, saw a decline of 10.2%, reflecting ongoing challenges in the property market [17]. Inflation and Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.5% year-on-year in July, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.8%, indicating mixed inflationary pressures [13][14]. - The CPI increase is attributed to rising prices in fresh vegetables and eggs due to supply constraints, while PPI reflects weakness in upstream raw material prices [13][14]. Financing and Monetary Policy - The total social financing stock reached 395.72 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2%, supported mainly by government and corporate bonds [20][21]. - The central bank's monetary policy is expected to strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments, which may support economic stabilization in the second half of the year [20].