盐湖股份：盐湖产业龙头，Q2业绩环比改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][5][4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 7.237 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 27.31%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.212 billion yuan, down 56.60% year-on-year [2][5] - The company is a leading player in the domestic potassium fertilizer and lithium extraction industries, with projected revenues for 2024-2026 of 15.605 billion, 17.376 billion, and 19.999 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of -27.68%, +11.35%, and +15.10% respectively [2][5] - The company has a strong cost advantage in potassium and lithium production, maintaining a gross margin of 53.52% for potassium products and 60.16% for lithium carbonate in the first half of 2024, which are industry-leading levels [5][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved potassium chloride sales of 2.2551 million tons and 2.2367 million tons, with year-on-year increases of 10.68% and 4.63% respectively, while lithium carbonate sales were 18,900 tons and 20,200 tons, with year-on-year increases of 34.2% and 34.9% [5] - The average selling price of lithium carbonate decreased by 62.81% year-on-year, impacting overall revenue [5] - Q2 2024 saw significant improvement, with revenue of 4.513 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 65.67%, and a net profit of 1.278 billion yuan, up 36.84% from Q1 [5] Production Capacity and Expansion - The company plans to increase its lithium carbonate production capacity to 40,000 tons per year by 2024, with ongoing construction of a new lithium salt project progressing well [5][4] - The main process equipment for the lithium extraction plant has reached a milestone of 56% completion [5] Valuation Metrics - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected to be 1.06 yuan, with subsequent years showing increases to 1.23 yuan in 2025 and 1.50 yuan in 2026 [2][5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 13.2 in 2024, decreasing to 9.3 by 2026 [4]