业绩符合预期，关注核电及AI液冷国产替代：海鸥股份

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [6] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 646 million yuan for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.39%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 27.84 million yuan, up 28.63% year-on-year [6] - The second quarter saw a revenue of 377 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.08%, but a decline in net profit by 23.06% due to reduced exchange gains and a slowdown in order performance recognition [6] - The company has a strong order backlog of 3.743 billion yuan, which is approximately 2.7 times its total revenue for 2023, indicating potential for future earnings growth [6] - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic cooling tower market, with significant opportunities in nuclear power and AI liquid cooling sectors [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the gross margin was 25.39%, down 2.68 percentage points year-on-year, with the second quarter gross margin at 25.22%, a decrease of 2.06 percentage points [6] - The net cash flow from operating activities for the first half was 52.37 million yuan, a decline of 19.20 million yuan year-on-year, with a cash collection ratio of 80.29%, down 58.97 percentage points [6] Order and Contract Status - The company’s contract liabilities reached 1.399 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.06%, indicating a robust pipeline for future revenue recognition [6] Market Position and Growth Potential - The company has secured orders for nuclear island cooling towers, marking a significant step in domestic substitution for previously imported products [6] - The focus on AI liquid cooling presents additional growth opportunities, as the company prepares for relevant certifications to compete in a market currently dominated by foreign firms [6] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for 2024-2026 are 111 million yuan, 143 million yuan, and 179 million yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 15X, 12X, and 10X based on the stock price as of August 29 [6][7]