Dynanonic(300769) 光大证券·2024-09-01 09:43Investment Rating - The report downgrades the company's rating to "Overweight" due to intensified competition and the significant decline in lithium iron phosphate prices [2] Core Views - The company's H1 2024 revenue was RMB 4.341 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 51.18%, with a net loss of RMB 516 million, a reduction of 50.59% compared to the same period last year [1] - Q2 2024 revenue was RMB 2.449 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 37.97%, with a net loss of RMB 331 million, and a gross margin of -3.57% [1] - The company's losses in H1 2024 were mainly due to a significant drop in lithium prices, intensified market competition, and reduced product prices, leading to lower gross margins [1] - The company's phosphate-based cathode material sales volume in H1 2024 was 105,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.28%, with revenue of RMB 4.25 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 52.13%, and an average product price of RMB 40,200 per ton, a year-on-year decrease of 57.74% [1] - The company's current phosphate-based cathode material production capacity is 300,000 tons/year, with an under-construction capacity of 149,000 tons/year, and a capacity utilization rate of 75% in H1 2024 [1] - The commercialization of lithium manganese iron phosphate is accelerating, with several new models equipped with this technology launched in 2024, and the company's lithium supplement agent projects are progressing smoothly, expected to contribute to profits in the second half of the year [1] Financial Performance - The company's revenue in 2022 was RMB 22.557 billion, with a net profit of RMB 2.38 billion, and an EPS of RMB 13.70 [3] - In 2023, the company's revenue was RMB 16.973 billion, with a net loss of RMB 1.636 billion, and an EPS of -RMB 5.86 [3] - For 2024E, the company's revenue is projected to be RMB 9.158 billion, with a net loss of RMB 369 million, and an EPS of -RMB 1.32 [3] - For 2025E, the company's revenue is projected to be RMB 10.979 billion, with a net profit of RMB 251 million, and an EPS of RMB 0.90 [3] - For 2026E, the company's revenue is projected to be RMB 12.832 billion, with a net profit of RMB 434 million, and an EPS of RMB 1.55 [3] Valuation and Profit Forecast - The report lowers the net profit forecast for 2024-2025 to -RMB 369 million and RMB 251 million, respectively, and adds a 2026 net profit forecast of RMB 434 million, with corresponding P/E ratios of NA, 27X, and 16X [2] - The company's capacity scale is leading in the industry, and it is expected to turn a profit next year as the industry cycle reaches an inflection point [2] Market Data - The company's total market capitalization is RMB 6.7 billion, with a total share capital of 280 million shares [4] - The stock's price range over the past year was between RMB 22.26 and RMB 99.50, with a 3-month turnover rate of 188.54% [4] Industry and Company Rating System - The rating system includes "Buy," "Overweight," "Neutral," "Underweight," and "Sell," with "Overweight" indicating a 5% to 15% higher return than the market benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [8]