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煤炭行业周报:港口库存去化,动力煤止跌反弹
Tebon Securities·2024-09-01 10:39

Investment Rating - The coal mining industry is rated as "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report indicates a rebound in coal prices after a period of decline, driven by reduced port inventories and stable supply conditions [1][2] - The overall revenue for the coal industry in H1 2024 was 1,558.62 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 12.6%, while total profit was 316.86 billion, down 24.8% [1] - The report anticipates that macroeconomic expectations and demand improvements will be key factors in the valuation recovery of the sector [1][4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Tracking - Price Analysis: The price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal increased to 839 yuan/ton, up 0.72% week-on-week [2][10] - Supply and Demand Analysis: Rail input volume decreased by 8.93%, and port throughput fell by 12.70% [31][36] - Inventory Analysis: Total coal inventory at major ports decreased by 1.29%, with Qinhuangdao's inventory down 10.33% [39][40] - International Coal Market: The price of coal in international markets showed mixed trends, with IPE Rotterdam coal price at 121.3 USD/ton, down 1.26% [4][56] 2. Market Review - The coal sector outperformed the broader market, with a weekly increase of 1.91% compared to a 0.4% decline in the Shanghai Composite Index [58] - Key stocks such as Wu Hua Energy and Huabei Mining saw significant gains, while others like Luan Energy experienced declines [58] 3. Recent Events - The Russian government has extended the suspension of export taxes on anthracite and thermal coal until December 1, 2024, which is expected to lower export costs for Russian coal [59]