建筑材料行业周观点：供给端变化或决定“金九银十”旺季成色

Investment Rating - Neutral (Maintain) for the construction materials industry [2] Core Views - The manufacturing PMI for August is at 49.1%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued weakness in demand. The industry is experiencing a profit cycle where most companies in the float glass and photovoltaic glass sectors are in a loss phase, while leading companies in cement and fiberglass are at the bottom of the cycle. The supply-side changes may determine the performance of the "golden September and silver October" peak season [4][5][6]. Summary by Sections Cement - The national cement market price increased by 0.3% week-on-week, with notable price rises in Jiangxi and Henan by 20-30 CNY/ton. Demand showed slight improvement, particularly in East and South China, while the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Southwest regions faced declines due to weather conditions. The average shipment rate for key regions is 49.7% [24][8]. - The cement sector is expected to benefit from policies supporting urban village renovations and a trillion-yuan bond issuance, which may lead to improved demand and profit recovery in 2024 [8][9]. Glass - The average price of float glass decreased to 1366.30 CNY/ton, down 3.91% from the previous week. Despite the traditional peak season approaching, demand remains limited, leading to increased inventory levels [7][8]. - The photovoltaic glass sector is experiencing a stable demand with slight supply reductions, while the float glass industry is entering a phase of supply-side adjustments due to increasing losses [7][8]. Fiberglass - The fiberglass market is seeing a slight increase in prices, with the average price of crude yarn at 3723 CNY/ton, down 8.2% year-on-year but up 17.8% month-on-month. The market is stabilizing, and the supply side is expected to tighten due to delayed new capacity launches [5][6][8]. Carbon Fiber - The carbon fiber market is currently experiencing price stabilization, with average prices around 85 CNY/kg. The supply side is expected to improve as new capacity is delayed and existing capacity undergoes maintenance [9][10]. Retail vs. Engineering - Retail sector performance is better than the engineering sector, supported by stable demand from high-energy cities' second-hand housing transactions. Companies with a higher proportion of retail business, such as Beixin Building Materials and Weixing New Materials, are recommended for investment [5][6]. Key Companies to Watch - Focus on leading companies in the cement sector such as Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement, as well as fiberglass companies like China Jushi and Zhongcai Technology, which are expected to perform well in the current market conditions [9][10].