钢铁行业周报：供需基本面调整好转，市场博弈“金九”成色

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Follow the Market" rating for the steel industry, indicating a neutral stance towards the sector's performance relative to the broader market [6]. Core Insights - The steel market is experiencing a mixed trend, initially strong but later weakening due to insufficient terminal demand and raw material needs, despite improved market sentiment from overseas interest rate cut expectations [2][12]. - Steel production for the week was 7.787 million tons, remaining stable week-on-week, while consumption increased to 8.576 million tons, reflecting a 2.45% week-on-week rise but an 8.18% year-on-year decline [2][12]. - The report highlights a gradual recovery in steel mill profitability, with a slight increase in profit margins and a potential acceleration in production as demand is expected to improve in September [4][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on undervalued, high-dividend, and stable performance companies in the general steel sector, such as Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and Hualing Steel [5][15]. - In the special steel sector, companies with profit elasticity and high dividends like CITIC Special Steel and Yongjin Co. are recommended [5][15]. 2. Weekly Review - The steel industry outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a 0.70% increase compared to a 0.17% decrease in the index [17]. - The steel industry's PE (TTM) ratio is at 16.48, indicating a mid-level valuation among industries, while the PB (LF) ratio is at 0.77, reflecting a low valuation [17]. 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil totaled 26.1 million tons, a 4.29% year-on-year decrease, while port inventories increased by 2.26% week-on-week to 153.72 million tons [3][13]. - The average daily pig iron production decreased to 2.209 million tons, reflecting a 1.59% week-on-week decline and a 10.54% year-on-year decline [3][13]. 4. Future Outlook - Steel mills are expected to ramp up production as profitability improves, with a projected stabilization in pig iron production and a reduction in inventory pressure, particularly in construction materials [4][14]. - The report emphasizes the need to monitor downstream demand changes and the pace of steel mill restarts closely [4][14]. 5. Key Events - The report notes significant macroeconomic developments, including a decrease in public budget revenue and an increase in manufacturing sales, which may support the steel industry's recovery [32][34].