有色金属行业周报：旺季和降息将至，看好商品价格走势

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [4]. Core Views - The report highlights a bullish outlook for commodity prices due to the upcoming peak season and interest rate cuts, particularly in precious metals and industrial metals [4][8][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Precious Metals - The dovish stance of the Federal Reserve continues, with expectations of interest rate cuts, which supports gold prices despite a strong dollar and better-than-expected U.S. economic data. The core PCE index rose by 2.6% year-on-year, below the expected 2.7% [4][8]. - Gold prices remain strong, with a recommendation to focus on companies like Zhongjin Gold, Zijin Mining, and Shandong Gold, while silver investments should consider Xinyi Silver and Yunnan Tin [4][8]. 2. Industrial Metals - The report indicates that the prices of industrial metals are expected to improve with the onset of the peak season and interest rate cuts. Copper prices have shown resilience in the domestic market despite global inventory increases [9][10]. - Global copper inventory stands at 555,400 tons, with a decrease of 2,700 tons week-on-week but an increase of 36,590 tons year-on-year. The report suggests a bullish outlook for copper prices due to strong demand from the new energy sector [10][12]. 3. New Energy Metals - Lithium prices have rebounded due to significant cost support, although supply and demand imbalances persist. The report notes a production of 13,450 tons of lithium this week, with a slight increase in output [13]. - The report recommends focusing on companies like Salt Lake Co., Zangge Mining, and Yongxing Materials for lithium investments [13]. 4. Other Minor Metals - The report discusses the gradual strengthening of rare earth prices due to improved supply and demand dynamics, with light rare earths showing price increases while heavy rare earths face downward pressure [14]. - Companies to watch include Hunan Gold, China Rare Earth, and Xiamen Tungsten [14]. 5. Weekly Review - The non-ferrous index rose by 1.06%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indices. Notable stock movements include Yinhai Investment rising by 33.15% and Zhongjin Gold falling by 12.02% [17][20]. 6. Valuation - As of August 30, the non-ferrous industry has a PE (TTM) valuation of 19.03 times, with the lithium sector showing the lowest PB valuation among sub-sectors [20][22]. 7. Major Events - The report outlines significant macroeconomic events, including a 3.0% annualized growth in U.S. GDP for Q2, which exceeded expectations, and a decline in China's public budget revenue by 2.6% year-on-year [26][28].