煤炭行业周报：业绩压力释放，迎接9月行业拐点到来

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Views - The coal sector is undergoing a valuation reshaping, driven by profound supply-demand structural changes and a trend towards "utility-like" characteristics. High dividend assets are increasingly favored in a backdrop of asset scarcity and declining risk-free rates. Recommended stocks include Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua, along with coal-electricity integrated companies like Xinji Energy [3][2]. - The report anticipates a potential bottom for thermal coal prices around mid-September, with a rebound expected as non-electric coal demand rises [3][2]. - The report highlights that leading companies with high long-term contract ratios, such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, are outperforming in terms of earnings despite industry-wide profit declines [3][2]. Summary by Sections Thermal Coal Data Tracking - Thermal coal prices are rising, with significant daily consumption driving short-term price increases. The report predicts a price bottom around mid-September as seasonal demand shifts [3][2]. - As of August 31, 2024, Qinhuangdao port inventory stands at 4.6 million tons, down 10.3% from the previous week [23]. - The average price for thermal coal at major northern ports has increased, with prices at Huanghua port for Q5500 grade coal reaching 850 RMB/ton, up 1.0% [5]. Coking Coal Data Tracking - Coking coal prices have shown a recent uptick, with the price at Jing Tang port for main coking coal rising to 1,770 RMB/ton, an increase of 5.4% [37]. - The report notes that domestic coking coal prices are declining while overseas prices are also down, indicating a competitive pricing environment [37][45]. - As of August 30, 2024, the inventory of coking coal at three major ports has increased by 2.3% to 3.514 million tons [50]. Industry Performance Review - The coal sector has outperformed the broader market, with the coal index rising by 1.97% compared to a 0.60% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [71]. - Key performers include China Coal Energy, which saw an 8.67% increase, and Shaanxi Coal, which rose by 7.25% [71]. - The report indicates that the overall profit decline in the coal industry is expected to narrow in Q3, with a projected decrease of only 3% compared to previous quarters [3][2].