宏观研究报告：面对变化，如何应对

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The housing pension scheme does not increase individual burdens and is not expected to negatively impact the real estate cycle[3] - Special bond issuance has accelerated, but this should not be seen as a reopening of fiscal space; only 38% of the annual plan was issued in the first half of the year[3] - Infrastructure spending accounts for approximately 35% of fiscal expenditure, which can generate immediate purchasing power, while the remaining 65% is mainly wealth transfer[3] Group 2: Market Trends and Recommendations - The restaurant industry's profit decline is attributed to consumers preferring smaller eateries, indicating a broader consumption issue[3] - The credit bond market is experiencing deeper adjustments due to redemption pressures, but the fundamental and policy pressures on the fixed income market are limited[3] - It is suggested to maintain medium to short-duration bonds and be cautious with long-term interest rate bonds due to liquidity constraints[4] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The macroeconomic growth is expected to rely on further policy support as the pace of large-scale equipment updates is slowing[4] - In the equity market, focus should be on semiconductors and environmental sectors, while the overall index performance is expected to be limited[4] - Commodity markets may face a downward cycle, with global commodities gradually moving towards deflation[4]