航空行业研究框架专题报告-240828(1)

Industry Overview - The aviation industry is divided into transport aviation and general aviation, with transport aviation being the primary focus for investment [7] - The industry is characterized by heavy assets, low profit margins, high barriers to entry, and high monopolistic tendencies [22][23][24] - The industry has experienced deep integration, with strong regulatory oversight helping leading airlines maintain their first-mover advantages [17][20] Business Models - Passenger airlines are categorized into full-service and low-cost models, with low-cost further divided into ultra-low-cost and hybrid low-cost [11] - Low-cost airlines focus on single aircraft types, high seat density, and point-to-point routes, while full-service airlines offer multiple cabin classes and hub-and-spoke networks [13][14] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply factors include the number of aircraft, seats, flight hours, and ASK (Available Seat Kilometers), while demand factors include GDP, passenger volume, and RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) [2] - China's aviation demand is expected to grow steadily, with a projected low supply growth for seven consecutive years [57][59] Financial Characteristics - Aviation fuel is the largest cost component, accounting for over 30% of total costs, with Spring Airlines showing a clear advantage in single-aircraft costs [73][74] - Exchange rate fluctuations significantly impact the net profits of the three major airlines and Hainan Airlines [77] - Spring Airlines' ROE in 2023 exceeded 2019 levels, while the three major airlines still lag behind their 2019 performance [79][83] Valuation Trends - Over the past decade, the aviation industry's PB (Price-to-Book) ratio has fluctuated between 1.27x and 16.10x, while the PE (Price-to-Earnings) ratio has ranged from -319.90x to 220.42x [98] - PE valuation becomes ineffective when companies report minimal profits or losses, resulting in extremely high or negative PE ratios [98] Competitive Landscape - The Chinese aviation market is dominated by the three major airline groups (Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern), with Spring and Juneyao Airlines gaining market share [67][68] - The CR3 (Concentration Ratio of the top three airlines) index has shown a declining trend but rebounded in 2022 and 2023 [70][71] Key Companies - Air China: The only flag carrier in China, with a strong presence in first-tier airports and high market share in key routes [101] - China Southern Airlines: The largest airline in China by passenger volume, with a focus on Guangzhou and Beijing as dual hubs [107] - China Eastern Airlines: Operates a diversified business model, including full-service, low-cost, and regional airlines, with a strong presence in Shanghai [110] - Spring Airlines: A leading low-cost carrier in China, known for its efficient cost management and high aircraft utilization [113] - Juneyao Airlines: Operates a dual-brand strategy, with Juneyao focusing on premium services and 9 Air targeting the low-cost market [116]