秋季开工需求边际好转，煤炭价格有望重拾升势

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [2] Core Views - The coal industry is expected to maintain high prosperity due to the capacity cycle driven by supply-side reforms that have effectively reduced excess capacity [35][36] - The autumn demand is showing marginal improvement, and coal prices are likely to rebound [36] - The report highlights four main investment themes: 1. Focus on leading companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy for stable operations [36] 2. Strengthen allocation in coking coal companies like Shanxi Coking Coal and Pingmei Shenma for stronger profit certainty [36] 3. Pay attention to undervalued coal-electricity integrated companies like Xinjie Energy and Huaihe Energy [36] 4. Gradually allocate to thermal coal targets such as Jinkong Coal and Yanzhou Coal Mining [36] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The coal industry has a total market value of 1,628,874 million yuan and a circulating market value of 424,252 million yuan, with 37 listed companies [2] - The report indicates that the average daily production of thermal coal from 462 sample mines is 5.68 million tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 1.06% but a year-on-year increase of 9.57% [3] Price Trends - As of August 30, 2024, the price of Shanxi-produced thermal coal (Q5500) at Jingtang Port is 845.0 yuan/ton, up 8.0 yuan/ton from the previous week [46] - The average price index for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region is reported at 713.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [42] Company Performance - China Shenhua reported a commodity coal production of 26.8 million tons in July 2024, with a sales volume of 40 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.3% [37] - Shaanxi Coal achieved a coal production of 12.1 million tons in July 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 6.1% [38] - China Coal Energy's coal production in July 2024 was 11.6 million tons, with a sales volume of 23.43 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [38] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the demand for high-calorific thermal coal is expected to recover due to seasonal demand increases in the chemical and construction sectors during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [36] - The report emphasizes that the coal sector's high dividends and low valuations, combined with recovering demand, enhance its investment appeal [36]