有色金属大宗金属周报：静待美国8月就业数据，金价波动率预计放大

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1]. Core Views - The precious metals sector is experiencing fluctuations in gold prices, with expectations of increased volatility due to upcoming U.S. employment data. The report anticipates a long-term upward trend in gold prices driven by loose monetary and fiscal policies in the U.S., alongside geopolitical tensions [1]. - The copper sector is influenced by macroeconomic expectations, with domestic downstream operations remaining high. The report notes a rebound in copper prices after a period of fluctuation, with a long-term bullish outlook due to supply constraints [1]. - The aluminum sector is seeing a slow recovery in downstream operations, with high alumina prices and expectations for demand during the peak consumption season. The report highlights the need to monitor the supply of alumina and the operational capacity of electrolytic aluminum plants [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Recent U.S. economic indicators show initial jobless claims slightly below expectations, with a revised Q2 GDP growth rate of 3%, exceeding the forecast of 2.8% [6]. - The core PCE price index for July was reported at 2.6%, lower than the expected 2.7% [6]. 2. Precious Metals - Gold prices have shown slight increases, with London spot gold up 0.09% and Shanghai gold up 0.26%. Silver prices also saw minor increases, while palladium rose significantly by 4.03% [15][19]. 3. Industrial Metals - Copper prices increased, with London copper up 1.45% and Shanghai copper up 0.98%. The report notes a rise in copper inventories in London and a decrease in Shanghai, indicating mixed supply dynamics [21]. - Aluminum prices decreased slightly, with London aluminum down 0.94% and Shanghai aluminum down 0.43%. The report highlights a drop in aluminum processing margins [28]. - Lead and zinc prices showed mixed trends, with lead prices declining and zinc prices increasing. The report notes a slight improvement in mining profits for zinc [33]. 4. Small Metals - The report tracks price movements for various small metals, indicating a general increase in prices for several metals, including germanium and tungsten, while manganese and titanium prices have decreased [1].