青岛啤酒：公司信息更新报告：销量、结构承压，静待行业回暖

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qingdao Beer is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure on sales and structure, awaiting industry recovery [1] - Revenue for H1 2024 is reported at 20.07 billion, a year-on-year decline of 7.1%, while net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 4.591 billion for 2024, reflecting a growth of 7.6% [6][10] - The report highlights that the beer sales volume has decreased by 7.8% in H1 2024, with a slight increase in ton price by 0.9% [7] - The company anticipates profit growth in H2 2024 due to lower base effects and decreasing raw material costs [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue is 20.07 billion, down 7.1% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders is 4.591 billion, up 7.6% [6][10] - Q2 2024 revenue is 9.92 billion, down 8.9% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 2.04 billion, up 3.6% [6] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 4.591 billion, 5.041 billion, and 5.365 billion respectively [6] Sales and Market Dynamics - Beer sales volume in H1 2024 decreased by 7.8%, with a ton price increase of 0.9% [7] - The main and sub-brands saw sales declines of 7.2% and 8.6% respectively, while mid-to-high-end beer sales fell by 4.0% [7] - The report indicates that the demand for high-end beers priced above 10 yuan is weak, while the 7-10 yuan segment performs relatively better [7] Cost and Profitability - Q2 2024 net profit margin increased by 2.18 percentage points, with gross margin up by 2.71 percentage points due to lower costs of barley and packaging materials [8] - The report notes that the decrease in raw material costs is expected to positively impact profitability in H2 2024 [9] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain profit growth in H2 2024, supported by a lower base and decreasing costs [9] - The overall beer market is facing challenges due to adverse weather and declining dining demand, but the company is actively promoting its products [9]