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康辰药业:2024年中报点评:业绩承压,临床管线有序推进

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 28.86 CNY based on a 37x valuation for 2024 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 405 million CNY for the first half of 2024, a decrease of 10.16% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 79 million CNY, down 14.73% year-on-year. The second quarter saw a revenue of 206 million CNY, down 27.98% year-on-year, and a net profit of 38 million CNY, down 44.14% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in sales of "Suling" [1]. - The company is progressing with its clinical pipeline, with the registration application for the canine "Sulig" accepted in 2023, and the completion of Phase III clinical trials for ZY5301, which showed promising results in pain relief and safety [1]. - The clinical development of the innovative drug KC1036 is on track, with multiple studies progressing well, including trials for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma and thymic tumors [1]. Financial Summary - The company adjusted its earnings forecast, predicting earnings per share of 0.78 CNY, 0.90 CNY, and 1.29 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, down from previous estimates of 1.02 CNY, 1.11 CNY, and 1.46 CNY [2]. - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 928 million CNY, 1,079 million CNY, and 1,297 million CNY, reflecting a modest growth trajectory [6][8]. - The gross margin is expected to remain strong at around 88.8% for 2024, with net profit margins projected at 13.4% [6][8].