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医药生物:中报分化,至暗已过,看多Pharma和创新药
Huafu Securities·2024-09-02 05:12

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4][55]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the pharmaceutical sector has shown significant differentiation in mid-year reports, with a positive outlook on Pharma and innovative drugs as the darkest period has passed [2][22]. - The report highlights that the overall trend for the pharmaceutical industry is expected to improve in the second half of 2024, driven by supportive policies for the innovative drug industry and the commencement of medical insurance negotiations [2][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Mid-Year Investment Strategy and Recommended Focus - The pharmaceutical sector can gradually increase allocations, with expectations of excess returns post-half-year reports [8]. - Key policies for 2024 include improved year-on-year growth in Q3, comprehensive promotion of DRG/DIP, and anticipated adjustments in essential medicines [8]. 2. 2024H Summary: Differentiation in Mid-Year Reports - The pharmaceutical index has been in a continuous oscillation and correction since the beginning of 2024, ranking 24th among 30 major industries as of August 30, with valuations at historical lows [22][24]. - The report summarizes the performance of various sub-sectors in H1 and Q2 of 2024, noting that innovative drugs, blood products, and medical consumables have shown strong revenue growth [24]. 3. Weekly Market Review and Hotspot Tracking (August 26 - August 30, 2024) - The CITIC Pharmaceutical Index rose by 2.0% during the week, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.2 percentage points [26][30]. - The report notes that the pharmaceutical sector's overall performance has improved, particularly in retail pharmacies, CROs, and medical devices, while sectors like pharmaceutical commerce and traditional Chinese medicine faced challenges [2][26]. 4. Long-Term Focus and Targets - The report emphasizes three key investment themes: adjusting existing stock (aging population and import substitution), seeking new growth (overseas expansion and major products), and capturing variables (state-owned enterprise reforms) [9][10]. - Specific companies to watch include innovative drug firms and those involved in major product categories, with a focus on their global competitiveness and commercialization potential [11][12][14]. 5. Recommended Focus Combinations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Heng Rui Pharmaceutical, Xin Da Biological, and Yue Kang Pharmaceutical for potential investment opportunities [3][16].