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航空机场行业周报:行业盈利改善,暑运量增价减
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2024-09-02 05:14

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation and aviation sector [2]. Core Insights - The transportation sector experienced a decline of 1.2% this week, underperforming the broader market. The best-performing sub-sectors included the express index (5.3%), logistics composite index (2.3%), and aviation index (1.0). Conversely, the worst performers were the railway index (-6.3%), highway index (-5.6%), and port index (-3.7) [2]. - The report highlights an improvement in industry profitability, with airlines showing a mixed performance in flight operations and aircraft utilization rates. The summer travel peak was delayed compared to last year, leading to a decrease in average ticket prices [6][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Key Targets - Recommended stocks include: - Jixiang Airlines: Projected P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 12.63X, 7.44X, and 6.86X, benefiting from a dual-brand strategy and strong demand during the summer travel season [11]. - Spring Airlines: Projected P/E ratios are 14.69X, 11.62X, and 10.91X, recognized for its cost control and leading market share in several airports [11]. - Huaxia Airlines: Projected P/E ratios are 18.11X, 7.73X, and 6.55X, currently in a performance rebound phase with significant growth potential in the regional aviation market [11]. - Southern Airlines: Projected P/E ratios are 16.95X, 7.07X, and 6.43X, focusing on building comprehensive international hubs [11]. - China Eastern Airlines: Projected P/E ratios are 20.61X, 9.75X, and 8.71X, with a strong position in major city routes [11]. - Shanghai Airport: Projected P/E ratios are 40.18X, 30.91X, and 24.14X, benefiting from synergies with Hongqiao Airport and stable investment returns [11]. 2. Aviation Data Tracking - The average daily flight volume for major airlines from August 26 to August 30 showed a decrease for most, with Southern Airlines at 2436 flights (down 1.98% week-on-week) and Eastern Airlines at 2375 flights (down 4.82%) [5][33]. - Average aircraft utilization rates also declined, with Southern Airlines at 8.50 hours per day (down 4.49% week-on-week) [33]. 3. Weekly Performance of Transportation Sector - The transportation sector's overall market capitalization is approximately 599.42 billion, with a circulating market value of 467.02 billion [2]. - The report indicates that the summer travel peak has shifted, with a notable decrease in average ticket prices by over 100 yuan compared to last year, driven by increased supply and flexible pricing strategies [6]. 4. Passenger and Cargo Metrics - As of July 31, the civil aviation passenger volume reached 69 million, a month-on-month increase of 17.85% and a year-on-year increase of 10.75% [13]. - The cargo volume increased to 752,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.12% [15]. 5. Market Outlook - The overall recovery trend in the aviation industry is positive, with expectations for improved flight operation efficiency and continued recovery in international routes, which will benefit airline performance [6]. - Upcoming holidays such as the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day are anticipated to sustain demand in the aviation market [6].