有色金属行业周报:工业金属价格震荡,旺季临近需求预期向好
Guotou Securities·2024-09-02 05:14

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market-A" [6] Core Views - The report highlights an optimistic outlook for industrial metals due to the upcoming demand peak in September and October, with expectations of price support from improved demand [2][38] - The report suggests focusing on specific companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, and Jiangxi Copper among others [2] Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The U.S. revised its Q2 GDP growth to 3%, enhancing market expectations for a soft landing, while China's manufacturing PMI slightly declined to 49.1% [2][38] - Copper prices showed fluctuations with LME copper at $9,252/ton, down 0.50%, and SHFE copper at ¥74,220/ton, up 0.98% [41] - Aluminum prices also fluctuated, with LME aluminum at $2,446/ton, down 3.45%, and SHFE aluminum at ¥19,850/ton, up 0.28% [46] - Zinc prices were reported at $2,900/ton, down 0.63%, with domestic zinc prices at ¥24,050/ton, up 0.21% [7] - Tin prices decreased to $32,440/ton, down 1.67%, while domestic tin prices were at ¥264,110/ton, down 1.29% [8] Copper - The copper rod operating rate slightly decreased to 79.26%, with a price gap between refined and scrap copper rods at ¥696/ton, down 222 [41] - Social copper inventory as of August 29 was 279,100 tons, down 0.44% week-on-week, indicating a slowing pace of inventory reduction [41] Aluminum - The operating rate of major aluminum processing enterprises was reported at 62.4%, with an increase in production for aluminum plates and foils due to recovering demand in automotive and 3C sectors [46] - Total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 811,000 tons, up 0.8% week-on-week [46] Zinc - Domestic zinc processing rates showed mixed performance, with the overall operating rate for galvanizing and die-casting at 57.12% and 53.76% respectively [7] - Zinc inventory as of August 29 was 127,100 tons, down 0.39 tons week-on-week [7] Lithium and Nickel - Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices were reported at ¥74,600/ton and ¥71,850/ton respectively, with slight fluctuations [51] - Nickel prices increased to ¥131,600/ton for electrolytic nickel, reflecting a positive demand outlook as the traditional peak season approaches [55]