铝行业周报：铝价仍然偏强，关注需求旺季及降息

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The aluminum price remains strong, with expectations for increased demand during the peak season and potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [1][12] - The overall supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, with some regional power supply issues affecting production [8][10] - The downstream demand for aluminum is steady, with some recovery in orders for aluminum products, although concerns about high prices are affecting production willingness [8][12] Summary by Sections Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK): Current price 9.76, 2024E EPS 2.12, 2025E EPS 2.25, 2024E PE 4.6, Investment rating: Buy [6] - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ): Current price 6.81, 2024E EPS 0.91, 2025E EPS 0.97, 2024E PE 7.5, Investment rating: Buy [6] - China Aluminum (601600.SH): Current price 6.83, 2024E EPS 0.77, 2025E EPS 0.86, 2024E PE 8.9, Investment rating: Buy [6] - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ): Current price 15.05, 2024E EPS 2.15, 2025E EPS 2.56, 2024E PE 7.0, Investment rating: Buy [6] - Yunnan Aluminum (000807.SZ): Current price 12.08, 2024E EPS 1.41, 2025E EPS 1.59, 2024E PE 8.5, Investment rating: Buy [6] Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector has shown a slight decline of -0.2% over the past month, -14.7% over three months, and -8.6% over the past year [4] Macro Environment - The macroeconomic outlook is favorable, with expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and continued efforts in China to boost consumption [8][12] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, with some regions experiencing power supply constraints [8] - Domestic aluminum processing rates are stable, with a slight increase in orders for certain products, although overall demand remains cautious [8][12] Price Trends - As of August 30, the LME three-month aluminum closing price is $2446.0 per ton, down 3.5% week-on-week but up 12.8% year-on-year [20] - The domestic aluminum price is 19850.0 RMB per ton, up 0.3% week-on-week and up 6.3% year-on-year [20] Production and Inventory - The weekly production of electrolytic aluminum is 833,000 tons, stable compared to the previous week and up 1.5% year-on-year [44] - The inventory of aluminum rods remains in a good de-inventory trend, with a current level of 110,100 tons [8]