【粤开宏观】当前宏观政策面临的两大“叙事陷阱”

Group 1: Current Macro Policy Challenges - The focus on real GDP growth has led to a disconnect between macro data and micro perceptions, weakening the urgency of growth stabilization policies, with real GDP growing 5% while nominal GDP only increased by 4.1% in the first half of the year[3] - Macro policies are often stigmatized by terms like "flooding the market," limiting their effectiveness; the public's perception of past strong stimulus measures has narrowed current policy space[3][4] Group 2: Economic Transition and Demand Issues - China's economy has shifted from "supply shortage" to "demand shortage," with inflation pressures changing from "easy to rise, hard to fall" to "easy to fall, hard to rise" as demand becomes the limiting factor[4][16] - The effectiveness of policies has diminished; the same level of stimulus that was once considered strong is now perceived as weak due to changes in consumer behavior and market dynamics[4][20] Group 3: Recommendations for Policy Adjustment - A restructuring of macro control objectives is necessary, emphasizing nominal GDP growth alongside real GDP targets to enhance public understanding and acceptance of policies aimed at boosting income[5][25] - Fiscal policy should focus more on expenditure growth rather than deficit rates to effectively implement counter-cyclical adjustments, with a suggestion to break the 3% deficit limit if necessary[5][26] - Monetary policy should prioritize real interest rates, with the average loan rate at 3.7% in Q2 2024, while the actual interest rate, adjusted for inflation, stands at 4.4%, indicating a need for further monetary easing[5][29]