证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 08 月 01 日 投资要点 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 投资策略研究 粤开市场日报-20250801 今日关注 今日主要指数涨跌幅：沪指涨跌幅为-0.37%，深证成指涨跌幅为-0.17%， 创业板指涨跌幅为-0.24%。 申万一级行业表现：环保、传媒、轻工制造在行业涨跌幅榜居前；通信、 综合、电子在行业涨跌幅榜居后。 概念板块表现：总体来看，动物疫苗、首板、在线教育概念表现相对较 好；稀土、电路板、十大军工集团概念表现相对较差。 | 一、市场回顾 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 二、风险提示 | 3 | | 图表 1： | | --- | | 今日主要指数涨跌幅（%）及概念板块表现 3 | 风险提示 股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykzq.com 1 / 5 策略点评 一、市场回顾 图表1：今日主要指数涨跌幅（%）及概念板块表现 二、风险提示 股市有风险，投资需谨慎 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykzq.com 3 / 5 ...

2025 年 08 月 01 日 投资要点 分析师：罗志恒 执业编号：S0300520110001 电话：010-83755580 邮箱：luozhiheng@ykzq.com 近期报告 《【粤开宏观】政治局会议释放的九大信 号》2025-07-30 《【粤开宏观】房地产调整到了什么阶 段？对经济的影响有多大？》2025-07-28 《【粤开宏观】关税战如何影响中国物 价：表现、展望及应对》2025-07-20 《【粤开宏观】上半年中国经济复盘及 6 月数据的两组"预期差"》2025-07-15 《【粤开宏观】未雨绸缪：下半年中国经 济形势展望及建议》2025-07-13 宏观研究 证券研究报告 | 宏观深度 【粤开宏观】育儿补贴规模每年或可 达千亿 "投资于人"信号意义明显 摘要 一、育儿补贴政策符合预期 从投资于物转向投资于人 育儿补贴制度实施方案的出台是符合预期的。此前一些地方已经有了省级层 面的育儿补贴政策。同时，这些年国家政策在积极推动从以物为主的投资， 转向以人为主的投资。未来力度也可能根据形势的需要进一步加大。 二、育儿补贴的意义 一是降低育儿的成本和负担，有利于提高居民部门的生育意愿。二是增加 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 07 月 31 日 投资要点 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 投资策略研究 粤开市场日报-20250731 今日关注 今日主要指数涨跌幅：沪指涨跌幅为-1.18%，深证成指涨跌幅为-1.73%， 创业板指涨跌幅为-1.66%。 申万一级行业表现：计算机、通信、综合在行业涨跌幅榜居前；煤炭、 非银金融、电力设备在行业涨跌幅榜居后。 概念板块表现：总体来看，连板、打板、抗癌概念表现相对较好；稀有 金属、煤炭开采、保险概念表现相对较差。 风险提示 股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykzq.com 1 / 5 | 图表 1： | | --- | | 今日主要指数涨跌幅（%）及概念板块表现 3 | 策略点评 | 一、市场回顾 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 二、风险提示 | 3 | 一、市场回顾 图表1：今日主要指数涨跌幅（%）及概念板块表现 二、风险提示 股市有风险，投资需谨慎 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykzq.com 3 / 5 资料 ...

Economic Outlook - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is characterized by both strategic opportunities and risks, with increasing uncertainties in the economic environment[5] - China's economy achieved a growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of 2025, supported by policies such as the trade-in program for consumer goods and proactive fiscal measures[7][8] Policy Direction - The government aims to maintain stable and flexible fiscal and monetary policies, with an emphasis on timely adjustments based on economic conditions[9][10] - A total of 11.86 trillion yuan in new fiscal deficits and special bonds is planned for 2025, with 5,550 billion yuan of long-term special bonds already issued by June 2025[11] Consumption and Services - The government is focusing on boosting service consumption, which is currently a weak point in the economy, by expanding the scope of trade-in policies to include service sectors[12][13] - The trade-in program for consumer goods is expected to generate over 1.6 trillion yuan in sales, accounting for more than 6.5% of total retail sales in the first half of 2025[12] Real Estate Market - The real estate market is in a slow recovery phase, with urban renewal initiatives being a key strategy to stabilize housing demand[25] - Despite a brief recovery in early 2025, real estate sales and investment have shown negative growth since May, necessitating further government intervention[25] Debt Management - The government is committed to managing local government debt risks, prohibiting the creation of new hidden debts, and promoting the clearance of financing platforms[26][27] - The focus is on transforming local financing platforms to operate independently from government control by mid-2027[27][28] Capital Market Stability - The capital market has shown resilience, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 7.9% since the beginning of the year, stabilizing around 3,600 points[29] - Efforts will be made to enhance the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market to maintain its upward momentum[29][30]

证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 07 月 30 日 投资要点 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 投资策略研究 粤开市场日报-20250730 今日关注 今日主要指数涨跌幅：沪指涨跌幅为 0.17%，深证成指涨跌幅为-0.77%， 创业板指涨跌幅为-1.62%。 申万一级行业表现：钢铁、石油石化、传媒在行业涨跌幅榜居前；国防 军工、通信、综合在行业涨跌幅榜居后。 概念板块表现：总体来看，连板、打板、影视概念表现相对较好；数字 货币、金融科技、动力电池概念表现相对较差。 风险提示 股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykzq.com 1 / 5 | 一、市场回顾 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 二、风险提示 | 3 | | 图表 1： | | --- | | 今日主要指数涨跌幅（%）及概念板块表现 3 | 策略点评 一、市场回顾 图表1：今日主要指数涨跌幅（%）及概念板块表现 二、风险提示 股市有风险，投资需谨慎 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykzq.com 3 / 5 资 ...

Market Overview - The main indices showed positive performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.33%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 0.64%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.86% [1] - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the top performers were Communication, Steel, and Pharmaceutical & Biological sectors, while Light Industry Manufacturing, Environmental Protection, and Commercial Retail lagged behind [1] - Concept sectors performed variably, with CRO, Medical Services, and Tibet Revitalization concepts showing relatively strong performance, whereas the Chicken Industry, Insurance, and Banking concepts performed poorly [1]

Market Overview - The main indices showed slight fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component rising by 0.44%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.96% [1] - In terms of industry performance, the top sectors included defense and military, non-bank financials, and pharmaceutical biology, while oil and petrochemicals, textiles and apparel, and construction decoration lagged behind [1] - Concept sectors performed variably, with circuit boards, insurance, and rare earth concepts showing relatively strong performance, whereas coal mining, Hainan Free Trade Port, and lithium mining concepts performed poorly [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market saw most major indices decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.33% to close at 3593.66 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index decreasing by 0.22% to 11168.14 points. The ChiNext Index dropped by 0.23% to 2340.06 points, while the Sci-Tech 50 Index increased by 2.07% to 1054.20 points. Overall, 2724 stocks declined, 2532 stocks rose, and 158 stocks remained flat, with total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets amounting to 12189 billion yuan, a decrease of 6258.16 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1][2]. Industry Performance - Among the primary industries, electronic, computer, real estate, light manufacturing, textile and apparel, and media sectors led the gains, while construction decoration, building materials, food and beverage, coal, comprehensive, and steel industries experienced declines [1][2]. Sector Highlights - The top-performing concept sectors today included GPU, Kimi, multimodal models, ChatGPT, photolithography machines, intelligent agents, servers, selected rare metals, AIGC, artificial intelligence, machine vision, ASIC chips, selected semiconductors, Xiaohongshu platform, and Pinduoduo partners [2].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a positive trend today, with major indices mostly rising. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.65% to close at 3605.73 points, while the Shenzhen Component rose by 1.21% to 11193.06 points. The Sci-Tech 50 Index and the ChiNext Index also saw gains of 1.17% and 1.50%, closing at 1032.84 points and 2345.37 points respectively [1]. - A total of 4391 stocks rose, while 911 stocks fell, and 113 stocks remained unchanged. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 18447 billion yuan, a decrease of 198.94 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, all sectors except for banking, telecommunications, and public utilities experienced gains today. The leading sectors included beauty and personal care, non-ferrous metals, steel, retail, non-bank financials, and social services [1]. - The top-performing concept sectors included Hainan Free Trade Port, selected rare metals, rare earths, rare earth permanent magnets, vaccines, lithium mines, small metals, stock trading software, cobalt mines, duty-free shops, lithium extraction from salt lakes, selected medical services, lithium battery cathodes, and stem cells [1].

投资策略研究 粤开市场日报-20250723 证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 07 月 23 日 投资要点 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 今日关注 指数涨跌情况：今日 A 股主要指数多数收跌。截止收盘，沪指涨 0.01%，收报 3582.30 点；深证成指跌 0.37%，收报 11059.04 点；科创 50 涨 0.45%，收报 1020.86 点；创业板指跌 0.01%，收报 2310.67 点。总体上，全天个股跌多涨 少，Wind 数据显示，全市场 4025 只个股下跌，1269 只个股上涨，120 只个股 收平。沪深两市今日成交额合计 18646 亿元，较上个交易日缩量 284.38 亿元。 行业涨跌情况：今日申万一级行业除非银金融、美容护理、家用电器、银行、 环保等 5 个行业上涨外，其余全部下跌，建筑材料、国防军工、机械设备、 电力设备、社会服务、建筑装饰等行业领跌。 板块涨跌情况：今日涨幅居前概念板块为水利水电建设、航空运输精选、CRO、 保险精选、半导体设备、炒股软件、医疗服务精选、微软合作商、稀土、光 芯 ...