投资策略研究 粤开市场日报-20260130 证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2026 年 01 月 30 日 投资要点 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 今日关注 指数涨跌情况：今日 A 股主要指数多数收跌。截止收盘，沪指跌 0.96%，收报 4117.95 点；深证成指跌 0.66%，收报 14205.89 点；科创 50 涨 0.12%，收报 1509.40 点；创业板指涨 1.27%，收报 3346.36 点。总体上，全天个股涨少跌 多，Wind 数据显示，全市场 2449 只个股上涨，2892 只个股下跌，128 只个股 收平。沪深两市今日成交额合计 28355 亿元，较上个交易日缩量 3945 亿元。 行业涨跌情况：今日申万一级行业涨少跌多，通信、电子、农林牧渔、轻工 制造和机械设备等行业领涨，涨幅分别为3.44%、0.68%、0.65%、0.54%和0.21%， 有色金属、钢铁、食品饮料、房地产和计算机等行业领跌，跌幅分别为 7.80%、 2.83%、2.78%、2.47%和 1.96%。 板块涨跌情况：今日涨幅居前概念板块为 ...

证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2026 年 01 月 29 日 投资要点 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 投资策略研究 粤开市场日报-20260129 今日关注 指数涨跌情况：今日 A 股主要指数涨跌不一。截止收盘，沪指上涨 0.16%，收 报 4157.98 点；深证成指跌 0.3%，收报 14300.08 点；创业板指跌 0.57%，收 报 3304.51 点；科创 50 指数跌 3.03%，收报 1507.64 点。总体上，全天个股 涨少跌多，Wind 数据显示，全市场 1801 只个股上涨，3562 只个股下跌，107 只个股收平。沪深两市今日成交额合计 32300 亿元，较上个交易日放量 2646 亿元。 行业涨跌情况：今日申万一级行业涨多跌少，食品饮料、传媒、房地产、非 银金融、石油石化等行业领涨，涨幅分别为 6.57%、3.53%、2.65%、2.28%、 2.23%，电子、国防军工、电力设备、机械设备等行业领跌，跌幅分别为 3.56%、 1.79%、1.78%、1.76%、1.66%。 概念板块涨跌情况：今日涨幅居前的概 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度 2026 年 01 月 29 日 投资要点 分析师：罗志恒 执业编号：S0300520110001 电话：010-83755580 邮箱：luozhiheng@ykzq.com 分析师：范城恺 执业编号：S0300525120001 电话： 邮箱：fanchengkai@ykzq.com 近期报告 《【粤开宏观】如何明显提高居民消费 率？》2026-01-27 《【粤开宏观】万亿顺差从何而来？》 2026-01-25 《【粤开宏观】5%的成绩与发力方向 ——2025 年中国经济复盘》2026-01-19 《【粤开宏观】2026 年美国经济展望：乐 观预期背后的三个风险》2026-01-13 《【粤开宏观】优化国民收入分配的思考： 如何提高居民收入》2026-01-11 【粤开宏观】美联储是否会屈从政治 压力？ 宏观研究 摘要 美联储 2026 年 1 月议息会议宣布政策利率维持 3.50%-3.75%不变，在 2025 年 9 月、10 月和 12 月连续三次降息后首次按下暂停键，符合市场预期。观察 2026 年美联储货币政策，不仅要考虑经济层面美国通胀与就业形势的变化， 还要考虑 ...

分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 投资策略研究 粤开市场日报-20260128 今日关注 证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2026 年 01 月 28 日 投资要点 指数涨跌情况：今日 A 股主要指数涨跌不一。截止收盘，沪指上涨 0.27%，收 报 4151.24 点；深证成指微涨 0.09%，收报 14342.89 点；创业板指跌 0.57%， 收报 3323.56 点；科创 50 指数跌 0.08%，收报 1554.8 点。总体上，全天个股 涨少跌多，Wind 数据显示，全市场 1736 只个股上涨，3636 只个股下跌，96 只个股收平。沪深两市今日成交额合计 29654 亿元，较上个交易日放量 704 亿元。 行业涨跌情况：今日申万一级行业涨少跌多，有色金属、石油石化、煤炭、 建筑材料、钢铁等行业领涨，涨幅分别为 5.92%、3.54%、3.42%、2.18%、2.16%， 综合、传媒、国防军工、美容护理、医药生物等行业领跌，跌幅分别为 2.53%、 1.77%、1.68%、1.65%、1.56%。 概念板块涨跌情况：今日涨幅居前的 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度 2026 年 01 月 27 日 分析师：罗志恒 执业编号：S0300520110001 电话：010-83755580 邮箱：luozhiheng@ykzq.com 近期报告 《【粤开宏观】万亿顺差从何而来？》 2026-01-25 《【粤开宏观】5%的成绩与发力方向—— 2025 年中国经济复盘》2026-01-19 《【粤开宏观】2026 年美国经济展望：乐 观预期背后的三个风险》2026-01-13 《【粤开宏观】优化国民收入分配的思考： 如何提高居民收入》2026-01-11 《【粤开宏观】2025 年美国经济回顾：表 面韧性与内在脆弱》2026-01-08 宏观研究 【粤开宏观】如何明显提高居民消费 率？ 摘要 《"十五五"规划建议》在发展目标部分明确提出推动"居民消费率明显提高"。 通过提高居民消费率、做大做强国内消费市场，可以降低经济增长对外需的 依赖，增强发展的自主性和韧性，同时避免贸易顺差过度积累，缓和国际经 贸紧张局面。 横向比较看，中国居民消费率显著低于美国，剔除自有住房折算租金、医疗 支出，亦如此。纵向比较看，在 1949 年至 2024 年的 75 年内 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.18% closing at 4139.9 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.09% closing at 14329.91 points. The ChiNext Index increased by 0.71% to 3342.6 points, while the STAR 50 Index rose by 1.51% to 1555.98 points. Overall, there were 1928 stocks that rose and 3450 that fell, with a total trading volume of 28950 billion yuan, a decrease of 3532 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1][2]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, electronics, communications, defense and military industry, machinery equipment, and media sectors led the gains with increases of 2.27%, 2.15%, 1.65%, 0.64%, and 0.48% respectively. Conversely, the coal, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, steel, beauty care, and pharmaceutical biotechnology sectors experienced declines, with decreases of 2.27%, 1.95%, 1.34%, 1.22%, and 1.11% respectively [1][2]. Concept Sector Performance - The concept sectors that saw the highest gains today included cultivated diamonds, superhard materials, advanced packaging, optical chips, memory, analog chips, BC batteries, automotive chips, semiconductor silicon wafers, MCU chips, semiconductor selections, optical modules (CPO), wafer industry, and IGBT. In contrast, sectors such as cobalt mining, animal health selections, major infrastructure central enterprises, lithium battery anodes, and central enterprise coal experienced pullbacks [2].

Market Overview - The A-share market saw most indices decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down by 0.09% closing at 4132.61 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.85% at 14316.64 points, the ChiNext Index down by 0.91% at 3319.15 points, and the STAR 50 Index down by 1.35% at 1532.8 points [1] - Overall, there were 1602 stocks that rose and 3767 stocks that fell, with a total trading volume of 32,482 billion yuan, an increase of 1630 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Among the primary industries, non-ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, coal, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery led the gains with increases of 4.57%, 3.18%, 2.07%, 0.85%, and 0.79% respectively [1] - Conversely, industries such as defense and military, automotive, social services, electronics, and real estate experienced declines, with decreases of 4.47%, 2.31%, 2.30%, 2.24%, and 2.23% respectively [1] Concept Sector Performance - The top-performing concept sectors included gold and jewelry, vaccines, selected rare metals, animal health, blood products, industrial metals, nickel ore, rare earths, influenza, cobalt ore, small metals, and biotechnology [2] - Sectors such as satellite internet, commercial aerospace, satellite navigation, and military information technology experienced pullbacks [2]

Trade Surplus Overview - In 2025, China's goods trade surplus reached $118.89 billion, marking a 19.8% increase from 2024[1] - The net export of goods and services contributed 1.64 percentage points to GDP growth, the second highest since 2007[1] Factors Driving Trade Surplus - Strong export resilience, with a 5.5% increase in export scale in 2025[2] - Import growth stagnated, remaining nearly flat due to falling international commodity prices and enhanced domestic supply capabilities[2] Trade Balance by Market - China maintained a trade surplus with 196 out of 249 trading partners, with significant surpluses from developed economies like the US and EU[3] - The trade surplus with the US was $280.4 billion, accounting for 23.6% of China's total trade surplus[3] Trade Surplus Composition - The trade surplus is increasingly diversified, with significant contributions from the EU (24.5%) and ASEAN (23.2%) markets[3] - The surplus is shifting from low-value industrial products to high-end manufacturing, with industrial product surplus growing by 8.3% in 2025[4] Commodity Trade Dynamics - Primary product deficit narrowed to $85.93 billion, while industrial product surplus reached $204.83 billion[4] - The decline in commodity prices led to a 12.6% reduction in the mineral fuel deficit[4] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include escalating global trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties that could impact trade dynamics[4]

Market Overview - The A-share market indices all experienced gains today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.33% to close at 4136.16 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.79% to 14439.66 points, the Sci-Tech 50 up by 0.78% to 1553.71 points, and the ChiNext Index gaining 0.63% to 3349.50 points [1][10] - Overall, there were 3938 stocks that rose and 1389 that fell, with a total market turnover of 30852 billion yuan, an increase of 3935 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][10] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the top gainers included Electric Power Equipment (up 3.50%), Nonferrous Metals (up 2.73%), National Defense and Military Industry (up 2.65%), Steel (up 2.50%), Media (up 2.01%), and Computer (up 1.64%) [1][10] - Conversely, the industries that saw declines included Communication (down 1.52%), Banking (down 0.90%), and Coal (down 0.76%) [1][10] Concept Sector Performance - The leading concept sectors in terms of gains today were Selected Power Equipment, BC Battery, TOPcon Battery, HJT Battery, Photovoltaics, Photovoltaic Glass, Silicon Energy, Perovskite Battery, Photovoltaic Roofs, New Energy, Satellite Internet, Anti-Overwork, Lithium Mining, Satellite Navigation, and Nickel Mining [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market indices all experienced gains today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.14% to close at 4122.58 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.50% to 14327.05 points, the Sci-Tech 50 up by 0.41% to 1541.64 points, and the ChiNext Index climbing by 1.01% to 3328.65 points [1][10] - Overall, a total of 3576 stocks rose while 1774 stocks fell, with 120 stocks remaining flat. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 26,917 billion yuan, an increase of 911 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][10] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the top gainers included building materials (up 4.09%), defense and military (up 3.23%), petroleum and petrochemicals (up 3.07%), telecommunications (up 2.83%), coal (up 1.85%), and steel (up 1.81%). Conversely, the sectors that saw declines included beauty and personal care (down 0.76%), banking (down 0.43%), and pharmaceuticals and biology (down 0.42%) [1][10] Concept Sector Performance - The leading concept sectors with significant gains today included large aircraft, aircraft carriers, copper-clad laminates, MoE threads, superhard materials, natural gas, selected power equipment, military-civilian integration, AVIC system, satellite internet, oil and gas extraction, cultivated diamonds, military information technology, nuclear fusion, and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation [2]