宏观周报：积极应对人口老龄化，国际油价波动增大

Domestic Economic Insights - In July 2024, national public budget revenue decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, while expenditure increased by 2.5%, indicating a slight improvement in fiscal conditions[5] - From January to July 2024, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached CNY 40,991.7 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.6%[8] - The new policies for domestic duty-free shops are expected to promote healthy development in the sector, with a focus on management and regulation[9] Aging Population Strategy - The Chinese government emphasizes the need to implement a national strategy to address population aging, with the elderly population expected to exceed 30% by 2035[7] - The market for the elderly care industry is projected to reach CNY 13 trillion by 2030, driven by increased demand for care and medical services[7] International Economic Trends - The U.S. consumer confidence index rose to 103.3 in August, up from 101.9 in July, indicating resilient consumer sentiment[12] - Germany's August CPI recorded a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, the lowest since March 2021, suggesting a cooling inflation trend[13] - Japan's Tokyo CPI for August was 2.6%, exceeding market expectations, indicating strong inflation resilience[14] Commodity Price Movements - Copper prices increased by 1.16% week-on-week, while Brent crude oil prices rose by 2.19%[16] - The price index for thermal coal rose by 0.63%, and rebar prices increased by 2.57%, while cement prices fell by 1.07%[19]