宏观月报：维持乐观判断，等待转变

Macro Analysis - The market experienced a rebound in August following a macro policy adjustment, with U.S. economic data improving from poor to good, particularly with a GDP revision showing a 3% annualized growth rate for Q2, up from 1.4% in Q1[3][13] - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut on September 18, which could lead to a further market rebound and a steepening yield curve[5][24] - The macroeconomic cycle indicates a risk of tightening liquidity despite a potential rate cut, with a focus on the balance between supply expansion and demand contraction impacting inflation sustainability[4][16] Domestic Economic Performance - China's industrial economy showed a slight slowdown in July, with year-on-year growth at 5.9%, while fixed asset investment growth fell to 3.6%[10] - Consumer pressure increased in July, with retail sales growth for non-automotive goods at 4.0% and automotive sales declining by 1.7%[10] - The CPI in July improved to +0.5% year-on-year, driven by stabilization in food prices, but the overall inflation structure remains cost-driven rather than demand-driven[19] Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve's successful anti-inflation campaign is acknowledged, but future inflation dynamics will depend on the interplay between supply and demand factors[17] - The Chinese central bank is expected to enhance supportive monetary policies, with a focus on counter-cyclical adjustments to bolster economic support[25] - There is a growing concern about the potential for unexpected rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and rising geopolitical risks impacting market stability[6]